A wave of coaching changes that began with a post-playoff shocker, Nick Saban’s retirement, ended with a snoozer last week when Michigan promoted assistant coach Sherrone Moore to the throne in Ann Arbor.
Additional moves at the power conference level would be unexpected at this point, so let’s assess the winners and losers from an unprecedented spin of the carousel that left three of the four playoff teams with new head coaches.
Winner: Oregon. The Ducks didn’t lose Dan Lanning, they gained quarterback Dillon Gabriel from Oklahoma, and two key antagonists were severely wounded. First, Kalen DeBoer left Washington, taking his 3-0 record against Lanning with him. Then Michigan lost Jim Harbaugh, weakening one of Oregon’s chief competitors in the 2024 Big Ten race. The Hotline loves hypotheticals, and lately we have pondered this: Given the importance of early success in the Big Ten, were the Ducks, in fact, better off losing two excruciating showdowns against the hated team in purple? Those results lowered Lanning’s market value, elevated DeBoer to the top of Alabama’s list and, therefore, fortified Oregon’s competitive position for next fall.
Loser: Michigan. Three things are equally true: 1) Moore did a phenomenal job with Michigan generally and in his duties as the interim coach during Harbaugh’s suspension; 2) The Wolverines had no choice — none, zero, zip — but to promote Moore once Harbaugh bolted for the NFL; and 3) Michigan is a lesser program without Harbaugh. How much less? If the regression is merely incremental, count the Wolverines as fortunate. We expect a significant backslide.
Winner: Ohio State. It was never realistic to expect Marvin Harrison Jr. to return, but everything else has gone splendidly for the Buckeyes since the frustrating end to another disappointing season (by OSU standards). If the past two months had only resulted in another year for edge J.T. Tuimoloau and tailback TreVeyon Henderson and the arrival of quarterback Will Howard and safety Caleb Downs, the Buckeyes would have been delighted. But Harbaugh’s departure from Ann Arbor weakens OSU’s chief rival immeasurably — no matter how well Moore performs, he’s no Harbaugh. Combine the roster developments with the exit of public enemy No. 1, and the Buckeyes stand as one of the offseason’s biggest victors.
Loser: Diversity. There were 13 coaching changes at the power conference level in the 2023-24 cycle, with two schools dismissing Black head coaches: Michigan State (Mel Tucker) and Syracuse (Dino Babers). But only two replacements, Syracuse’s Fran Brown and Michigan’s Moore, are Black. And so it goes in a sport experiencing rapid, unprecedented change everywhere except in the diversity of its head coaches.
Winner: Jimmy Sexton. The term ‘super agent’ has never been more appropriate after Sexton parlayed the retirement of his No. 1 client (Saban) into more money and security for two other key partners, Florida State’s Mike Norvell and Texas’ Steve Sarkisian. And let’s not forget the newest member of the Sexton stable, DeBoer, who also did well for himself. Sexton comes closer to running college football than anyone but the network executives at Fox and ESPN.
Loser: Alabama. College football (and therefore life) in Tuscaloosa will never be the same. Saban not only won games at an unprecedented level, he was an immune system that protected Alabama from the twin contagions (i.e., the transfer portal and NIL) that infect every other program and make winning at Saban’s level impossible for everyone else.
Winner: Alabama. In this situation, the scale wasn’t 1-to-100. Because Saban didn’t change his mind and Kirby Smart wasn’t an option, the best outcome possible for the Crimson Tide was a 90. By that measure, we give the DeBoer hire an 89.9, with that 0.1 shortfall based on his inexperience with Southern football generally and the SEC specifically.
Loser: ESPN. Alabama’s dynasty under Saban drove massive ratings for the SEC’s exclusive broadcast partner: Millions tuned in each week to root for the Crimson Tide, but millions rooted against the Tide, as well. Any regression in Tuscaloosa — and make no mistake: there will be regression — will undermine ESPN’s audience. We aren’t convinced all those viewers will find a new team to root for, or against.
Winner: Fox. Whatever hurts ESPN helps its rival for eyeballs.
Loser: Washington. If Jedd Fisch wasn’t the best option for UW under the circumstances, he certainly was on the short list of preferred outcomes. But in the coldest calculation — are the Huskies better off with Fisch than DeBoer? — the answer is obvious. The former has one winning season as a head coach. The latter has won at three different levels of the game.
Winner: Arizona State. The Arizona schools rarely thrive at the same time. A bad stretch for one — for instance: ASU’s recruiting scandal — usually benefits the other. To that end, Fisch’s departure naturally creates an opportunity for the Sun Devils to regain traction in the state and with the recruits circled by both programs.
Loser: Arizona. Had Fisch stuck around, the Wildcats might have entered 2024 as the Big 12 favorite. That outcome remains possible but is less likely given the exodus of several key playmakers and the inevitable glitches that accompany a new coaching staff.
Winner: Arizona. That said, the Wildcats made the best hire available in Brent Brennan. They cannot win consistently if forced to change coaching staffs every three or four years. (Few schools can.) Brennan’s ties to the program don’t guarantee that he’ll decline every job offer that comes his way for a decade. But they lower the flight risk substantially.
Loser: Oregon State. Given the backdrop of financial and conference uncertainty, the Beavers had no choice but to promote Trent Bray once Jonathan Smith departed. And Bray may very well keep the program afloat with regular postseason appearances. But Smith was the perfect coach for OSU. Anyone else constitutes a loss.
Winner: Michigan State. The Hotline is skeptical of Smith’s ability to achieve high-level success with the Spartans — a mid-level program that’s about to lose ground in the Big Ten. However, there’s zero doubt that he’s a massive upgrade over Mel Tucker — both as a person and coach — and will provide a far better return on investment than the $95 million dumpster fire previously employed.
Loser: The NCAA. Aside from Sexton and his cavalcade of $10 million-per-year clients, the biggest individual winners from the 2023-24 coaching carousel were the attorneys taking aim at college football’s economic model with lawsuits designed to 1) create revenue-sharing agreements between the schools and the athletes and 2) further enhance player movement (i.e., no restrictions on multi-time transfers). The past few weeks have generated plenty of evidence supporting their claims. Anytime the antitrust attorneys win, the NCAA loses.
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