With three teams tied for second place and two more teams just a single game behind them, the Pac-12 race is a glorious mess entering the final days of the regular season.
Of those five tied teams, only No. 11 Oregon State faces a ranked opponent this week (No. 4 Stanford on Thursday). The Cardinal needs one more win to clinch sole possession of first place, while the Beavers are at risk of dropping out of the top four and playing in the opening round of the Pac-12 tournament.
USC and UCLA are on the road in Arizona while Colorado and Utah are home against the Washington schools. Wins by the underdogs in any of those games would have NCAA Tournament ramifications since Arizona, Washington State and Washington are on the bubble (per ESPN).
Stanford, USC, UCLA, Oregon State and Colorado still are in position to host NCAA games for the rounds of 64 and 32, with Utah in range of that coveted position.
This week, competition is scheduled for Thursday and Saturday — earlier than usual in order to facilitate travel to Las Vegas next week for the Pac-12 Tournament.
Here are the Hotline’s ninth power ratings of the 2023-24 season, with seven teams in new positions.
(NET rankings through Monday)
1. Stanford (24-4/13-3)
Last week: 1
Results: lost to Arizona 68-61, beat Arizona State 81-67
Next up: at Oregon State (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 4
Comment: Even with Cameron Brink out (illness), Stanford led Arizona by nine points at home with 3:59 left and should have closed out the win. Kiki Iriafen had 43 points and 35 rebounds in two games last week and, with Brink back against ASU, reinforced their dominance as a frontcourt duo. “She (Iriafen) is playing monster basketball,” coach Tara VanDerveer said.
2. UCLA (22-5/11-5)
Last week: 5
Results: beat Utah 82-52 and Colorado 53-45
Next up: at ASU (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 5
Comment: It was much tougher sledding three days later against Colorado, but what the Bruins did to Utah on Feb. 22 shouldn’t be minimized. They jumped to an 18-4 lead and never trailed while holding the Utes 28 points below their season average. Completing the sweep against nationally ranked foes warrants a rise of three positions in the Hotline’s power ratings.
3. USC (21-5/11-5)
Last week: 3
Results: beat Colorado 87-81, lost to Utah 74-68
Next up: at Arizona (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 11
Comment: USC and Colorado shot so magnificently in the first half Friday, including 83 percent from 3-point range for both teams, that there were only 15 combined rebounds to be had. The significant difference against Utah was McKenzie Forbes and Kayla Padilla dipping from a combined 36 points (9-of-11 from long range) against the Buffaloes to 13 (on 5-of-17 shooting). The Trojans are 7-1 in February.
4. Oregon State (22-5/11-5)
Last week: 2
Results: won at WSU 65-52, lost at Washington 61-51
Next up: vs. Stanford (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 18
Comment: It’s not surprising that the Beavers would suffer another loss — their second in three games — without Raegan Beers (17.5 points per game). But they deserve credit for winning at Washington State, which was in dire need of victories to make the NCAA Tournament field, even though Lily Hansford was the high scorer with just 11 points. Until Beers (broken nose) returns, defense is paramount.
5. Utah (20-8/10-6)
Last week: 6
Results: lost at UCLA 82-52, won at USC 74-68
Next up: vs. Washington State (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 7
Comment: The Utes easily could have lost twice last week after the one-sided defeat at UCLA, which included Jenna Johnson suffering a cut on her head in the first quarter that required stitches. Johnson returned late in the third quarter with Utah trailing by 24 points, then played 36 minutes in a bounce-back win at USC when she was hit again and needed more stitches.
6. Colorado (20-7/10-6)
Last week: 4
Results: lost at USC 87-81 and UCLA 53-45
Next up: vs. Washington (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 16
Comment: After winning four straight against unranked teams, the Buffs are now on a four-game losing streak (by a combined 21 points) against ranked opponents. That puts their chances of hosting an NCAA Tournament sub-regional in jeopardy — a vastly different situation than being projected as a No. 1 seed in the selection committee’s early reveal two weeks ago.
7. Arizona (16-12/8-8)
Last week: 7
Results: won at Stanford 68-61 and Cal 87-68
Next up: vs. USC (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 33
Comment: Adia Barnes said her team has improved through “addition by subtraction” this season, including the recent departure of leading scorer Kailyn Gilbert. Certainly, the short-handed Wildcats don’t have to apologize for beating Stanford without Brink. With a four-game winning streak and a more-than-respectable NET ranking, they are solidly on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
8. Washington (15-12/5-11)
Last week: 11
Results: beat Oregon 74-66 and Oregon State 61-51
Next up: at Colorado (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 49
Comment: Like UCLA, Washington jumped three spots in the Hotline’s power ratings because of a home sweep and, in particular, taking down Oregon State. Elle Ladine went from a scoreless game against Oregon to 23 points against OSU. The Huskies also have a win over USC and beat Washington State when the Cougars were ranked.
9. Washington State (17-12/6-10)
Last week: 9
Results: lost to Oregon State 65-52, beat Oregon 71-61
Next up: at Utah (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 25
Comment: The Cougars are running out of time to secure a fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament berth. They have talent, even without injured star Charlisse Leger-Walker, but are missing the cohesiveness she provides. WSU hasn’t put a winning streak together since January and is 3-7 in the past four weeks.
10. Cal (16-12/6-10)
Last week: 8
Results: beat ASU 67-55, lost to Arizona 87-68
Next up: at Oregon (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 63
Comment: After securing a season split against ASU, the Bears were outscored 32-11 in the second quarter against Arizona and trailed by 24 at halftime. Ioanna Krimili’s scoring has dropped off in the last three games (11 combined points), but Australian freshman Lulu Twidale had a season-high 24 against Arizona. The Bears are currently lined up to meet Washington State in the Pac-12 tournament’s opening round.
11. Arizona State (11-17/3-13)
Last week: 10
Results: lost at Cal 67-55 and Stanford 81-67
Next up: vs. UCLA (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 112
Comment: ASU’s three Pac-12 wins are over unranked opponents (Washington twice and Cal), so the Sun Devils are still seeking a signature victory under second-year coach Natasha Adair. They’ll get two chances this week, then another in the Pac-12 tournament as the likely No. 11 or 12 seed. Jalyn Brown had a pair of 18-point games in the Bay Area.
12. Oregon (11-18/2-14)
Last week: 12
Results: lost at Washington 74-66 and WSU 71-61
Next up: vs. Cal (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 93
Comment: Will the Ducks avoid a school-record 12th consecutive loss? That’s on the line against Cal, which won 66-57 when the teams played in Berkeley on Jan. 21. Phillipina Kyei combined for 33 points and 36 rebounds last week and leads the Pac-12 with 19 double-doubles. But Chance Gray shot 2-of-17 against Washington State as guard play remains an ongoing issue for the Ducks.
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