Whereas the other power conferences possess a handful of bluebloods expected to dominate their territory in 2024 — as they dominate every year — the Big 12’s membership overhaul has created unprecedented balance across its sweeping footprint.

By every identifiable measure, from tradition and resources to recruiting prowess and TV ratings, the distance from first place to last isn’t nearly as great as in the Big Ten, SEC and even the ACC.

The absence of elite programs is problematic on several levels — political leverage in playoff discussions being just one — but it sets the stage for first-rate competition during the season and makes projecting the conference race deliciously tricky.

We have not picked ties in the forecast below. The Hotline never picks ties. But there will be ties. Two-team ties. Three-team ties. Myriad-team ties.

Of that, we can be sure.

For now, we have examined the rosters, the schedules and the coaching staffs and sketched an order of finish for 2024.

Please note: The projections will be revised in the late spring, after the second transfer window.

Here we go …

1. Utah

2023 record: 8-5/5-4 Pac-12
Coach: Kyle Whittingham (20th season)
Top returnees: QB Cam Rising, LB Lander Barton
Key newcomers: WR Dorian Singer (USC), CB Kenan Johnson (Georgia Tech)
Comment: Our forecast assumes the Utes experience a reversion to the mean with injuries after getting walloped last season. They have an elite quarterback in Rising, whose career began in the Big 12 (at Texas in 2018), and should possess one of the top defenses in the conference with Barton and outside linebacker Karene Reid as the ringleaders. The 2021-22 Pac-12 champs will make it three titles in four seasons — and the 2024 will come with Utah’s first playoff berth.

2. Kansas

2023 record: 9-4/5-4 Big 12
Coach: Lance Leipold (fourth season)
Top returnees: QB Jalon Daniels, CB Cobee Bryant
Key newcomers: TE DeShawn Hanika (Iowa State), DE Dylan Wudke (Youngstown State)
Comment: The most impactful newcomer in Lawrence is not a player; he’s offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes, who should team with Daniels (assuming his back injury has healed) to provide the foundation for a first-rate attack. We expect the improvement on defense to continue — KU was 76th in yards allowed per play last season, compared to 116th in 2022 — and allow the Jayhawks to play complementary football.

3. Oklahoma State

2023 record: 10-4/7-2 Big 12
Coach: Mike Gundy (20th season)
Top returnees: TB Ollie Gordon, DE Xavier Ross
Key newcomers: TB A.J. Green (Arkansas), S Kobe Hylton (UTEP)
Comment: We considered the Cowboys for the top spot given their long list of offensive returnees — a group that includes Gordon, the entire line and veteran quarterback Alan Bowman. But is the defense up to the task? Is second-year coordinator Bryan Nardo the right fit in Stillwater? We aren’t convinced. OSU simply doesn’t have the balance needed to finish on top of a conference that has so few weak links.

4. Arizona

2023 record: 10-3/7-2 Pac-12
Coach: Brent Brennan (first season)
Top returnees: QB Noah Fifita, LB Jacob Manu
Key newcomers: TB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (New Mexico), DE Tre Smith (San Jose State)
Comment: The Wildcats are a trendy pick to win the Big 12 based on their 2023 success and Fifita’s return (along with star wideout Tetairoa McMillan). But we see several obstacles. Brennan was the right hire, but the staff turnover could impact cohesion. Also, the Wildcats can no longer lean into the underdog role. How will they handle the expectations? The regression will play out on the margins, but that’s all it takes.

5. Kansas State

2023 record: 9-4/6-3 Big 12
Coach: Chris Klieman (sixth season)
Top returnees: QB Avery Johnson, DE Brendan Mott
Key newcomers: WR Dante Cephas (Penn State), S Jordan Riley (Ball State)
Comment: Quarterback Will Howard’s departure (to Ohio State) creates an opportunity for Johnson, but his lack of experience (66 career pass attempts) gives us pause. That pause is extended when we consider the attrition on the offensive line: Will the Wildcats muster enough consistency and avoid racking up damaging negative-yardage plays? It’s not like the defense is a slab of granite, either. The unit was solid last season and should be again in 2024. But solid might not be enough to compete for the title.

6. West Virginia

2023 record: 9-4/6-3 Big 12
Coach: Neal Brown (sixth season)
Top returnees: QB Garrett Greene, LB Tyrin Bradley
Key newcomers: WR Jaden Bray (Oklahoma State), DB Garnett Hollis Jr. (Northwestern)
Comment: Brown climbed off the hot seat and conjured nine wins out of a roster picked for last place in the 2023 preseason media poll. Expectations are substantially higher in 2024; meeting them will be challenging. Greene’s return helps immensely, but the defense looks wobbly. Also, the Mountaineers open conference play with five grueling games in succession. Will they have anything left for November?

7. Colorado

2023 record: 4-8/1-8 Pac-12
Coach: Deion Sanders (second season)
Top returnees: QB Shedeur Sanders, CB Travis Hunter
Key newcomers: OL Justin Mayers (UTEP), DL BJ Green (Arizona State)
Comment: The Buffaloes weren’t as good as they looked at the start of 2023 or as bad as they looked in October and November. They were a vastly improved team that was still below average. In 2024, we expect them to take another step thanks to Shedeur Sanders, Hunter and upgrades on the lines of scrimmage. (They once again turned to the portal for help.) The schedule is extremely difficult, but don’t count out a bowl berth.

8. Iowa State

2023 record: 7-6/6-3 Big 12
Coach: Matt Campbell (ninth season)
Top returnees: QB Rocco Becht, DB Jeremiah Cooper
Key newcomers: OL Dylan Barrett (Wisconsin), DE Kenard Snyder (Louisiana Monroe)
Comment: As opposed to so many of their peers, the Cyclones enter the Big 12’s next era with more questions on offense than defense. They allowed just 5.2 yards per play last season and have enough returnees to maintain that level of efficiency. Success hinges on the offensive line giving Becht time to throw and tailback Abu Sama III room to run.

9. TCU

2023 record: 5-7/3-6 Big 12
Coach: Sonny Dykes (third season)
Top returnees: QB Josh Hoover, LB Namdi Obiazor
Key newcomers: OL Cade Bennett (San Diego State), CB JaTravis Broughton (Utah)
Comment: The most significant addition, in our view, is Andy Avalos, a superb defensive coordinator (at Oregon) who was terminated as Boise State’s head coach last season. If Avalos has the expected impact and Hoover makes the expected improvement, the Frogs should regain lost ground — not all, but some. Eight wins is the benchmark for Dykes and Co. on an annual basis.

10. Texas Tech

2023 record: 7-6/5-4 Big 12
Coach: Joey McGuire (third season)
Top returnees: QB Behren Morton, DB C.J. Baskerville
Key newcomers: WR Josh Kelly (Washington State), DL De’Braylon Carroll (Rice)
Comment: The Red Raiders are in the group of mid-level Big 12 programs that stand to lose ground competitively in the aftermath of conference expansion, with their trajectory in 2024 as the first piece of evidence. The drop won’t be steep — McGuire’s group should avoid the bottom tier — but Texas Tech doesn’t have a single outstanding unit that it can lean into for salvation.

11. Cincinnati

2023 record: 3-9/1-8 Big 12
Coach: Scott Satterfield (second season)
Top returnees: OL Luke Kandra, DT Dontay Corleone
Key newcomers: QB Brendan Sorsby (Indiana), DE Mikah Coleman (Eastern Michigan)
Comment: The Bearcats stand as our Big 12 sleeper pick for 2024 — not that we expect them to contend for the title, but they should be dramatically improved with the addition of Sorsby and the return of the entire starting offensive line. The defense should be fairly stout, as well. Also, the Bearcats will benefit immensely from low expectations. Our only hesitation with this projection, frankly, is that it’s too low.

12. UCF

2023 record: 6-7/3-6 Big 12
Coach: Gus Malzahn (fourth season)
Top returnees: WR Kobe Hudson, DT Ricky Barber
Key newcomers: QB KJ Jefferson (Arkansas), LB Jesiah Pierre (Texas Tech)
Comment: The Knights only won three conference games in their inaugural season in the Big 12, but that was more than any of the other newcomers. We don’t foresee much of an uptick in ’24 with a difficult schedule and uncertainty at quarterback. Jefferson wasn’t consistent enough at Arkansas to suggest he can lead UCF to a top-tier finish in the Big 12.

13. Brigham Young

2023 record: 5-7/2-7 Big 12
Coach: Kalani Sitake (ninth season)
Top returnees: QB Jake Retzlaff, DE Tyler Batty
Key newcomers: QB Gerry Bohanon (Baylor), DE Jack Kelly (Weber State)
Comment: The Cougars are the only team in our projections with quarterbacks listed in both the returning player and newcomer categories, which reflects the uncertain state of the position specifically and BYU’s tenuous footing in the 2024 race broadly. The defense is also a concern after yielding 177.7 yards per game on the ground — and a whopping 4.9 yards per carry — last season.

14. Arizona State

2023 record: 3-9/2-7 Pac-12
Coach: Kenny Dillingham (second season)
Top returnees: QB Jaden Rashada, S Shamari Simmons
Key newcomers: RB Raleek Brown (USC), S Kamari Wilson (Florida)
Comment: The Sun Devils were competitive last season (until the final weeks, at least), and that should be the case again in 2024. The degree of material improvement, however, is difficult to predict because of all the roster and staff turnover sustained in the past 15 months, plus the unresolved NCAA investigation. Three conference wins would constitute a successful season, while final judgment on the Dillingham era must wait until 2025.

15. Baylor

2023 record: 3-9/2-7 Big 12
Coach: Dave Aranda (fifth season)
Top returnees: WR Monaray Baldwin, CB Caden Jenkins
Key newcomers: WR Jamaal Bell (Nevada), DE Steve Linton (Texas Tech)
Comment: The situation in Waco, which was plenty bleak at the close of a disappointing season, turned downright grim in early December when quarterback Blake Shapen transferred to Mississippi State. His departure left the Bears with a massive void. If Aranda doesn’t find a solution and produce a significant course correction, he might be out of work by December.

16. Houston

2023 record: 4-8/2-7 Big 12
Coach: Willie Fritz (first season)
Top returnees: QB Donovan Smith, CB Isaiah Hamilton
Key newcomers: WR Mekhi Mews (Georgia), DB Hershey McLaurin (West Virginia)
Comment: The Cougars made one of the smartest hires of the offseason, for Fritz was the architect of Tulane’s rise to prominence. He will have more resources to work with in Houston, along with tougher competition. We expect immediate progress, but with a difficult schedule, the Cougars might not produce a record that reflects their improvement.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

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*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

Gould, who officially takes over from George Kliavkoff on Friday, was joined by Washington State president Kirk Schulz, chair of the Pac-12 board of directors.

Perhaps the most substantive development came from Gould, who revealed that the Pac-12 Networks’ production studio in San Ramon, California, will remain active for the 2024-25 school year. Although the networks will cease to exist as a media distribution company, the studio will support Washington State and Oregon State “with live events and content,” Gould said. (No specifics were provided.)

She also disclosed the terms of her contract: It’s a two-year deal that coincides with the NCAA grace period allowing WSU and OSU to operate as a two-team conference in football for the 2024 and 2025 seasons. (The schools’ basketball teams and other Olympic sports will be affiliate members of the West Coast Conference during that period.)

Gould and Schulz also fielded a slew of questions about the future of the College Football Playoff — Schulz is on the board of managers — following reports that the Big Ten and SEC want the playoff to expand to 14 teams in the 2026 season.

But the call was notable for two moments of passion.

When asked about the future for Washington State and Oregon State beyond the next two seasons — they could attempt to rebuild the Pac-12 or join another conference — Schulz seemed committed to keeping the conference alive.

“There are lots of ideas about what the Pac-12 should be doing,” he said. “I love the West Coast sports scene and think it’s really important that there’s a top-tier conference on the West Coast for all sports. How do we build it? How do we grow? What’s our vision? And how to do it on the West Coast?”

Gould, who spent decades working in athletic departments before joining the Pac-12 office in 2018, has a three-pronged approach to the job as the first female commissioner of a power conference:

— Lead the Pac-12’s operational arm in a manner that best supports the Cougars and Beavers.

— Represent the conference on the national level, especially in discussions about the College Football Playoff.

— Help WSU and OSU plot a strategy for the future.

“That’s the most important and urgent piece, to partner with the campuses and forge a path for the two programs,” she said.

Gould also used a simple question — why did she take the job? — to outline her view of the Pac-12.

“Since August, there hasn’t been a night that has gone by that I haven’t thought about the more than 1,000 student-athletes on the campuses of Oregon State and Washington State,” she said.

“All I could think about was they need a leader that is prepared to fight for them, that is prepared to fight on their behalf.  … I wanted to be the leader that fought on behalf of those student-athletes and their future.”

The answer drew a stark contrast with the approach taken by her predecessor, Kliavkoff, who sided with the 10 outbound schools in the dispute over governance of the conference and has not uttered a public peep in support of OSU and WSU since the collapse of the Pac-12 in August.

“(Gould) will be a great advocate” for the two schools, a source said.

Other notable comments:

— On an eventual merger, or reverse merger, with the Mountain West: “Those conversations haven’t started,” Gould said.

— On reports that the SEC and Big Ten are considering breaking away from the NCAA: “Why not reform what’s there as opposed to ‘Let’s recreate something,’” Schulz said.

— On WSU and OSU using private equity to fund athletic operations: “I don’t have a stance one way or the other but would be happy to have the conversation,” Schulz said.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

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*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

“There is an entirely different set of challenges,” he said recently. “It’s a totally different world.”

That’s true of the past seven weeks alone.

Since Michigan won the national championship:

— Two high-profile coaches, Alabama’s Nick Saban and Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh, have left the sport.

— The Department of Justice has taken aim at the NCAA.

— The College Football Playoff has approved a new format and is discussing additional expansion.

— Boosters have won the right to buy recruits.

— Players on an Ivy League basketball team have been declared employees.

“The NCAA needs to admit that everything they’ve done is wrong and stop trying to fix it all with Band-Aids,” said Hill, who retired in March 2018 after three decades in charge of the Utes.

“Start with the things that have to happen. We know players are going to get paid. We know they have to go to school. We know football is where the real money is. We know the transfer portal is a challenge but kids have to have freedom.

“They have to find solutions.”

Keeping track of all the recent changes isn’t easy. Here’s a primer on the key off-the-field developments (in rough chronological order) …

Uncle Sam gets involved

To the list of plaintiffs against the NCAA, add the Department of Justice.

Just 10 days after the national championship, the DOJ joined a lawsuit against the NCAA’s policy on second-time transfers.

First-time transfers were granted immediate eligibility in the spring of 2021, but the NCAA did not offer the same treatment for undergraduates switching schools a second time — until recently.

Prior to Christmas, a West Virginia judge issued an injunction stating the NCAA could not force second-time transfers to sit out a full season.

Weeks later, the DOJ joined the suit — and will eventually make its case in court.

Until then, the injunction stands and players are immediately eligible following their second transfer.

Big Two team up

Frustrated by the NCAA’s inability to succeed in court or produce meaningful change to a broken model, the heavyweight conferences are stepping into the void and consolidating their authority.

In early February, the SEC and Big Ten announced the formation of a joint advisory group of university presidents and athletic directors that will consider “the significant challenges facing college athletics.”

The partnership will undoubtedly consider everything from revenue-sharing deals with players to policies governing the transfer portal and name, image and likeness to whether the sport must be separated from the rest of college athletics.

In other words, they plan to find solutions — solutions that suit their purposes specifically — and offer other FBS leagues the opportunity to join the journey.

Those who decline will be left behind.

“They know what they want,” Hill said, “And everyone else has to react.”

NLRB involvement

The National Labor Relations Board has taken aim at the NCAA on both coasts. While a complaint against USC, the Pac-12 and the NCAA plays out in Los Angeles, a regional office in New England ruled in early February that Dartmouth’s men’s basketball players are employees of the school.

An upcoming election — it hasn’t been scheduled — will determine if the Green Wave players are entitled to form the NCAA’s first labor union.

“It’s the first step to potential employee status for college athletes,” Tulane law professor Gabe Feldman told ESPN.

The USC case might be more significant. To this point, the NLRB’s jurisdiction is limited to private schools. But if the Pac-12 and NCAA are determined to be joint employers of USC athletes, then athletes across the NCAA (both private and public universities) could become employees.

Unleashing name, image and likeness

Last week, a federal judge in Tennessee became the latest contributor to the dismantling of the NCAA. Clifton Corker issued a preliminary injunction that allows third parties (i.e., NIL collectives funded by boosters) to offer financial inducements to recruits in exchange for them attending a particular school.

“The NCAA’s prohibition likely violates federal antitrust law and harms student-athletes,” Corker wrote.

With that, the bedrock of NCAA amateurism for a century was declared illegal. And yes, it applies to players across the country — those in the transfer portal and high school recruits.

Obviously, inducements have been integral to the recruiting process for eons. Corker’s ruling means all the arrangements previously made in the shadows can unfold in broad daylight.

CFP changes, parts 1 and (maybe) 2

Last week, the College Football Playoff’s board of managers approved the so-called 5/7 format for the 12-team event. In the 2024-25 seasons, there will be five automatic qualifiers and seven at-large teams.

(Originally, the CFP planned to have six and six, but the demise of the Pac-12 changed the calculation by eliminating a major conference.)

The new format carves an automatic bid for the highest-ranked team from the Group of Five, while Washington State and Oregon State — the lone remaining members of the Pac-12 — must qualify as at-large teams.

But that wasn’t the only development impacting the postseason. The conference commissioners on the CFP’s management committee began discussing the format for the 2026 season, which marks a new contract cycle.

The SEC and Big Ten, which possess so many of the sport’s bluebloods, are interested in creating a 14-team event in which only the top two seeds would have byes in the opening round.

What’s more, the two conferences want a bundle of automatic bids for themselves, thus limiting access to the playoff for everyone else.

A decision on the future format of the CFP could come in the next month or two.

Summer signings? Oh, my

The NCAA is considering a massive change to the football recruiting calendar. Officials are meeting this week, according to ESPN, to discuss what’s called the “three-period model” for signing National Letters of Intent.

Prospects could sign with schools in late June, late November (after the regular season) or early February.

The goal is to eliminate the current early signing window that falls just before Christmas because it overlaps with the transfer portal and bowl games — and, starting next season, will conflict with the opening round of the expanded playoff.

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey is among those who believe the recruiting calendar needs a makeover.

“Putting signing day in the middle of December with playoff games no longer works,” he told Yahoo.

And those are just the most immediate developments across the college football landscape.

There are several ongoing court cases that could inflict further damage on the NCAA model, plus Florida State’s legal challenge to the ACC’s grant-of-rights contract and early-stage discussions about expanding March Madness.

The past seven weeks have been packed with enough news to last seven months. And there is no end in sight.

“They should say, ‘Let’s look at the whole package. What are the outcomes that are legal?'” Hill said.

“They can’t take one little thing and try to fix it. They have to make major changes. They need to pay the players, and everything else will come from that.”

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

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*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.

The Zags have participated in the NCAA Tournament for 24 consecutive seasons (excluding 2020, when it was canceled). But in stark contrast to their normal standing this time of year, they are not guaranteed a berth.

The cleanest path would be to win the West Coast Conference tournament and claim the league’s automatic bid.

Otherwise, they must play the resume game and hope the NCAA selection committee deems Gonzaga’s profile good enough for the at-large pool.

At this point, it’s not — at least not compared to Saint Mary’s.

The Zags are 1-5 in Quadrant I games; the Gaels are 4-2.

The Zags have just three combined wins against Quadrant I and II opponents; the Gaels have seven.

Perhaps more alarming for the Zags, 86 percent of their victories are against Quadrant III and IV foes (the lowest quality), compared to just 68 percent for the Gaels.

There is no comparison: Saint Mary’s has a tournament-worthy resume regardless of the result Saturday night in Moraga; Gonzaga does not.

But it’s not a zero-sum game, either.

If the Zags fail to earn the WCC’s automatic berth, they will be compared to a plethora of teams in similar situations — teams on the bubble, teams with flawed resumes, teams that have left their fate in the hands of an unpredictable committee.

For Gonzaga, the showdown Saturday night is, above all, an exercise in risk reduction.

To the latest Best of the West rankings …

Also considered: Colorado, Eastern Washington, Grand Canyon, Nevada, Santa Clara, UC Irvine, UC San Diego, UNLV and Utah

1. Arizona (21-6/12-4 Pac-12)

Last week: 1
Results: lost to WSU 77-74, beat Washington 91-75
NET ranking: No. 4
Next up: at Arizona State (Wednesday)
Comment: Arizona should root for WSU to finish second or third in the Pac-12, thus ensuring the Wildcats would avoid their Kryptonite until the finals of the conference tournament.

2. Brigham Young (20-8/8-7 Big 12)

Last week: 2
Results: lost at Kansas State 84-74, won at Kansas 76-68
NET ranking: No. 10
Next up: vs. TCU (Saturday)
Comment: The massive victory in Lawrence ended KU’s 19-game home winning streak and super-charged BYU’s resume. (All the Cougars had to do was rally from a double-digit deficit early in the second half.) Now, they have four days to forget and re-focus.

3. Saint Mary’s (23-6/14-0 WCC)

Last week: 4
Results: beat San Diego 88-62
NET ranking: No. 15
Next up: at Pepperdine (Thursday)
Comment: Colorado State’s late-season stumble (see below) is undermining SMC’s resume given that the early-season victory in Fort Collins stood as one of the Gaels’ best results.

4. Washington State (21-7/12-5 Pac-12)

Last week: 5
Results: won at Arizona 77-74, lost at ASU 73-61
NET ranking: No. 36
Next up: vs. USC (Thursday)
Comment: Plenty to like about WSU’s resume — except the non-conference schedule, of course — but we’re hesitant to declare the Cougars a lock for the NCAAs. If the post-Tucson hangover continues and they get swept by the L.A. schools, it’s back to the bubble.

5. San Diego State (22-7/11-5 MW)

Last week: 6
Results: won at Fresno State 73-41, beat San Jose State 72-64
NET ranking: No. 18
Next up: at UNLV (Tuesday)
Comment: The Aztecs have just one double-digit defeat and are a few timely baskets away from being alone in first place. Regardless, their spot in March Madness is secure.

6. Gonzaga (22-6/12-2 WCC)

Last week: 7
Results: won at Portland 86-65, beat Santa Clara 94-81
NET ranking: No. 21
Next up: at San Francisco (Thursday)
Comment: The Zags can’t get caught looking ahead to Saint Mary’s, or they risk a loss to the Dons, who dropped the first head-to-head matchup by just five points in Spokane.

7. Oregon (18-9/10-6 Pac-12)

Last week: 8
Results: won at Stanford 78-65, lost at Cal 69-64
NET ranking: No. 62
Next up: vs. Oregon State (Wednesday)
Comment: Is this the final rivalry game for Oregon’s Dana Altman or OSU’s Wayne Tinkle? Unknown. The more intriguing question is whether it’s the final rivalry game for both coaches.

8. Boise State (20-8/11-4 MW)

Last week: Not ranked
Results: Won at Wyoming 92-72 and Air Force 79-48
NET ranking: No. 26
Next up: vs. New Mexico (Saturday)
Comment: The Broncos are simply pummeling opponents. Their average margin of victory during the four-game winning streak is 26.8 points. But their finish (New Mexico, Nevada and SDSU) is rugged.

9. Colorado State (20-9/8-8 MW)

Last week: 3
Results: lost at New Mexico 68-66 and UNLV 66-60 and to Nevada 77-74
NET ranking: No. 29
Next up: vs. Wyoming (Saturday)
Comment: The selection committee no longer emphasizes performance in the final 10 games and instead treats November results with the same weight as February outcomes.

10. Utah State (23-5/11-4 MW)

Last week: 10
Results: won at Fresno State 77-73
NET ranking: No. 35
Next up: vs. Air Force (Friday)
Comment: Technically, the Aggies are tied with Boise State atop the Mountain West. In reality, they have a one-game advantage rooted in sweeping the season series. They would win the tiebreaker, if it comes to that.

11. New Mexico (21-7/9-6 MW)

Last week: 9
Results: beat Colorado State 68-66, lost to Air Force 78-77
NET ranking: No. 25
Next up: at Boise State (Saturday)
Comment: There have been a slew of bad losses in the wild Mountain West. But we aren’t sure anything comes close to the Lobos losing at home to Air Force, which is 2-13 in conference play.

12. San Francisco (22-7/11-3 WCC)

Last week: 11
Results: beat Pepperdine 92-68
NET ranking: No. 56
Next up: vs. Gonzaga (Thursday)
Comment: After devoting many words to Gonzaga’s prospects for making the NCAA field as an at-large team, we can offer four on the Dons: They have no chance. On The Hilltop, it’s WCC title or bust.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

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Of those five tied teams, only No. 11 Oregon State faces a ranked opponent this week (No. 4 Stanford on Thursday). The Cardinal needs one more win to clinch sole possession of first place, while the Beavers are at risk of dropping out of the top four and playing in the opening round of the Pac-12 tournament.

USC and UCLA are on the road in Arizona while Colorado and Utah are home against the Washington schools. Wins by the underdogs in any of those games would have NCAA Tournament ramifications since Arizona, Washington State and Washington are on the bubble (per ESPN).

Stanford, USC, UCLA, Oregon State and Colorado still are in position to host NCAA games for the rounds of 64 and 32, with Utah in range of that coveted position.

This week, competition is scheduled for Thursday and Saturday — earlier than usual in order to facilitate travel to Las Vegas next week for the Pac-12 Tournament.

Here are the Hotline’s ninth power ratings of the 2023-24 season, with seven teams in new positions.

(NET rankings through Monday)

1. Stanford (24-4/13-3)

Last week: 1
Results: lost to Arizona 68-61, beat Arizona State 81-67
Next up: at Oregon State (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 4
Comment: Even with Cameron Brink out (illness), Stanford led Arizona by nine points at home with 3:59 left and should have closed out the win. Kiki Iriafen had 43 points and 35 rebounds in two games last week and, with Brink back against ASU, reinforced their dominance as a frontcourt duo. “She (Iriafen) is playing monster basketball,” coach Tara VanDerveer said.

2. UCLA (22-5/11-5)

Last week: 5
Results: beat Utah 82-52 and Colorado 53-45
Next up: at ASU (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 5
Comment: It was much tougher sledding three days later against Colorado, but what the Bruins did to Utah on Feb. 22 shouldn’t be minimized. They jumped to an 18-4 lead and never trailed while holding the Utes 28 points below their season average. Completing the sweep against nationally ranked foes warrants a rise of three positions in the Hotline’s power ratings.

3. USC (21-5/11-5)

Last week: 3
Results: beat Colorado 87-81, lost to Utah 74-68
Next up: at Arizona (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 11
Comment: USC and Colorado shot so magnificently in the first half Friday, including 83 percent from 3-point range for both teams, that there were only 15 combined rebounds to be had. The significant difference against Utah was McKenzie Forbes and Kayla Padilla dipping from a combined 36 points (9-of-11 from long range) against the Buffaloes to 13 (on 5-of-17 shooting). The Trojans are 7-1 in February.

4. Oregon State (22-5/11-5)

Last week: 2
Results: won at WSU 65-52, lost at Washington 61-51
Next up: vs. Stanford (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 18
Comment: It’s not surprising that the Beavers would suffer another loss — their second in three games — without Raegan Beers (17.5 points per game). But they deserve credit for winning at Washington State, which was in dire need of victories to make the NCAA Tournament field, even though Lily Hansford was the high scorer with just 11 points. Until Beers (broken nose) returns, defense is paramount.

5. Utah (20-8/10-6)

Last week: 6
Results: lost at UCLA 82-52, won at USC 74-68
Next up: vs. Washington State (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 7
Comment: The Utes easily could have lost twice last week after the one-sided defeat at UCLA, which included Jenna Johnson suffering a cut on her head in the first quarter that required stitches. Johnson returned late in the third quarter with Utah trailing by 24 points, then played 36 minutes in a bounce-back win at USC when she was hit again and needed more stitches.

6. Colorado (20-7/10-6)

Last week: 4
Results: lost at USC 87-81 and UCLA 53-45
Next up: vs. Washington (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 16
Comment: After winning four straight against unranked teams, the Buffs are now on a four-game losing streak (by a combined 21 points) against ranked opponents. That puts their chances of hosting an NCAA Tournament sub-regional in jeopardy — a vastly different situation than being projected as a No. 1 seed in the selection committee’s early reveal two weeks ago.

7. Arizona (16-12/8-8)

Last week: 7
Results: won at Stanford 68-61 and Cal 87-68
Next up: vs. USC (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 33
Comment: Adia Barnes said her team has improved through “addition by subtraction” this season, including the recent departure of leading scorer Kailyn Gilbert. Certainly, the short-handed Wildcats don’t have to apologize for beating Stanford without Brink. With a four-game winning streak and a more-than-respectable NET ranking, they are solidly on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

8. Washington (15-12/5-11)

Last week: 11
Results: beat Oregon 74-66 and Oregon State 61-51
Next up: at Colorado (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 49
Comment: Like UCLA, Washington jumped three spots in the Hotline’s power ratings because of a home sweep and, in particular, taking down Oregon State. Elle Ladine went from a scoreless game against Oregon to 23 points against OSU. The Huskies also have a win over USC and beat Washington State when the Cougars were ranked.

9. Washington State (17-12/6-10)

Last week: 9
Results: lost to Oregon State 65-52, beat Oregon 71-61
Next up: at Utah (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 25
Comment: The Cougars are running out of time to secure a fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament berth. They have talent, even without injured star Charlisse Leger-Walker, but are missing the cohesiveness she provides. WSU hasn’t put a winning streak together since January and is 3-7 in the past four weeks.

10. Cal (16-12/6-10)

Last week: 8
Results: beat ASU 67-55, lost to Arizona 87-68
Next up: at Oregon (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 63
Comment: After securing a season split against ASU, the Bears were outscored 32-11 in the second quarter against Arizona and trailed by 24 at halftime. Ioanna Krimili’s scoring has dropped off in the last three games (11 combined points), but Australian freshman Lulu Twidale had a season-high 24 against Arizona. The Bears are currently lined up to meet Washington State in the Pac-12 tournament’s opening round.

11. Arizona State (11-17/3-13)

Last week: 10
Results: lost at Cal 67-55 and Stanford 81-67
Next up: vs. UCLA (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 112
Comment: ASU’s three Pac-12 wins are over unranked opponents (Washington twice and Cal), so the Sun Devils are still seeking a signature victory under second-year coach Natasha Adair. They’ll get two chances this week, then another in the Pac-12 tournament as the likely No. 11 or 12 seed. Jalyn Brown had a pair of 18-point games in the Bay Area.

12. Oregon (11-18/2-14)

Last week: 12
Results: lost at Washington 74-66 and WSU 71-61
Next up: vs. Cal (Thursday)
NET ranking: No. 93
Comment: Will the Ducks avoid a school-record 12th consecutive loss? That’s on the line against Cal, which won 66-57 when the teams played in Berkeley on Jan. 21. Phillipina Kyei combined for 33 points and 36 rebounds last week and leads the Pac-12 with 19 double-doubles. But Chance Gray shot 2-of-17 against Washington State as guard play remains an ongoing issue for the Ducks.

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Schulz made his case along with OSU’s president Jayathi Murthy — a joint proposal that received the CFP board’s full attention.

“There wasn’t a great deal of support,” Schulz told the Hotline. “One of the reasons given was the (future revenue model) hasn’t been determined yet. It’s hard to discuss distributions beyond the next couple years. But we appreciated the opportunity to make the pitch.”

A member of the CFP board himself, Schulz did not seem frustrated by the tepid response from his peers. Nobody expected a two-team conference to be given the same status as the four massive leagues that will sprout next fall.

But when the topic turned to the CFP’s broader direction, Schulz seemed ready to sound an alarm.

If you think the NCAA is screwed up with all the legal mayhem and transfer portal madness, well, the playoff isn’t far behind. Schulz agreed with the description often used in the media — that the jewel of college football is “a mess.”

He offered two examples of the roiling waters:

*** Internal communication

The CFP has a tiered governance structure: The 10 Football Bowl Subdivision commissioners and Notre Dame’s athletic director form the management committee; one president/chancellor from each conference and Notre Dame’s president form the board of managers.

The committee creates policy, but the board must approve all major proposals and changes.

“The commissioners meet to discuss the playoff on a regular basis,” Schulz said. “Every couple months, they ask the presidents to approve something.

“We are getting too much information second- and third-hand. If the SEC and Big Ten are considering things, it’s appropriate they communicate to us.

“That communication is not going on.”

Schulz is pushing for the presidents to meet more frequently — and to be kept informed of policy discussions unfolding at the commissioner level.

During a CFP board meeting last week, in fact, a president from one of the Group of Five conferences reminded the board that playoff expansion (from four to 12 teams) had previously stalled as the commissioners squabbled.

It wasn’t until the presidents swooped in and resolved the outstanding issues — Mississippi State’s Mark Keenum led the process — that the 12-team format was formally approved in the fall of 2022.

“The reason we got to where we are is the presidents took the lead,” Schulz recalled the Group of Five president telling his peers on the board.

*** Resource disparity

The 12-team, four-round playoff format approved 18 months ago will be the law of the land in college football for the 2024 and 2025 seasons:

— Five automatic bids (for conference champions) and seven at-large berths.

— Opening-round byes for the four highest-ranked conference champions.

— Home games in the opening round for the No. 5-8 seeds.

— Quarterfinals and semifinals hosted by the New Year’s Six bowls (on a rotating basis).

But starting with the 2026 season, there is no playoff. No format. No governance structure. No revenue distribution plan. No media contract.

The expanded Big Ten and SEC, which will claim 12 of the 15 biggest brands in the sport next season — all the heavyweights except Notre Dame, Clemson and Florida State — are pushing for an outsized role in the next iteration of the playoff.

They want more money, more automatic bids and more votes in the boardroom. And the other conferences are powerless to stop them.

“The leagues have become tiered,” Schulz said, “and two of them” — the SEC and Big Ten — “are more resourced than everybody else. And some of the highly-resourced schools have a different format in mind, which would give them more automatic qualifiers.”

Schulz described the next month or two as a critical period for solving the CFP riddle for 2026 and beyond.

After existing for a decade as a four-team invitational, the CFP could maintain the 12-team format for just two seasons before expanding again. There is support within the management committee for 14 teams once the next cycle begins in 2026.

But any change in size would pale in significance compared to a change in access. If the Big Ten and SEC each secure three or four automatic bids, their influence over the sport, already massive, would grow exponentially.

Meanwhile, the ‘Pac-2’ schools are trying to remain as relevant, and flexible, as possible.

“Several presidents are committed to Washington State and Oregon State being an integrated part of the (CFP) conversations going forward,” Schulz said. “But what does that really mean? The situation could change.

“There is a profound sense of regret about the situation we’re in. A lot of presidents have told me, ‘That could have been us’ or ‘That could be us.’

“Realignment isn’t done.”

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Even Stanford, the highest-ranked team of the group, went 1-1 against the unranked Arizona schools. But the Cardinal still emerged from the penultimate week of the regular season with at least a share of its 27th conference title.

Stanford is two games up on USC, Oregon State and UCLA and needs one more victory for its 22nd outright championship in the Pac-12’s final season as currently configured.

Games this week are Thursday and Saturday, with Stanford visiting the Oregon schools.

The last time the Cardinal failed to win a regular season or Pac-12 tournament title was in 2019-20, when Oregon won both. Stanford tied Utah for the 2023 regular-season title and lost to UCLA in the tournament semifinals.

UCLA and Arizona were the teams of the week. The Bruins outlasted Colorado 53-45 on Monday on national television to complete a sweep of nationally ranked opponents.

After losing at home to Arizona for the first time since 2001, Stanford needed a win over Arizona State on Sunday — and a little help — to clinch a title. Both happened. All-American forward Cameron Brink returned from an illness that sidelined her against the Wildcats to participate in the Cardinal’s 81-67 victory. Meanwhile, both USC and Oregon State lost, the latter to unranked Washington.

“I want to enjoy this ride,” Stanford coach Tara VanDerveer said. “I’m not even going to think about anything else. We’re going to enjoy these (championship) shirts. I might sleep in it tonight. We know we’re going to the NCAA Tournament. We want to be healthy and enjoy playing with each other. That’s the priority.”

Brink estimates she was 60 percent recovered from the flu against ASU — healthy enough to contribute 14 points, nine rebounds, seven assists and five blocks to Kiki Iriafen’s 22-point, 20-rebound gem.

UCLA sweeps ranked teams in diverse ways

UCLA’s wins were as stylistically opposite as possible.

The Bruins shot 50 percent or above in three of four quarters against Utah, winning 82-52 to avenge an earlier loss. Londynn Jones went 7-for-10 from 3-point range and, with 23 points, was among four double-digit scorers.

“I thought this was our best defensive execution of a game plan all year long,” UCLA coach Cori Close said. “We had some moments in the first and second quarter where we lost track of what we were doing, but our next-play speed, our response to that mistake was maybe the best it’s been.”

Center Lauren Betts added: “If we play the way we did today, no one is going to be able to stop us.”

The defense was solid again against Colorado, which missed its first nine shots and was 6-of-21 from the field at halftime. But Betts couldn’t get going offensively, failing to score until the 8:49 mark of the fourth quarter and finishing with two points.

Guards Kiki Rice and Charisma Osborne combined for 34 points to get the Bruins past Colorado and into a second-place tie. Osborne’s 3-pointer with 1:28 left ended an 0-of-11 shooting stretch for the Bruins.

Colorado lost for the fourth consecutive time (all to ranked opponents) and has been outscored 79-48 in the first quarter of those defeats.

As it stands now, Colorado and Utah would be playing in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament on March 6 against Oregon and ASU, respectively.

Watkins vs. Hidalgo

There isn’t a wrong choice for national Freshman of the Year between USC’s JuJu Watkins and Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo.

They are second (Watkins) and third (Hidalgo) in the nation in scoring behind Iowa All-America Caitlin Clark. The 6-foot-2 Watkins has an edge in rebounding and blocks while the 5-6 Hidalgo has more assists and steals. Their shooting percentages are similar.

Watkins has scored at least 30 points in 12 games, with a high of 51. Hidalgo has eight games of at least 20 points with a high of 35, plus one triple-double. She and Iowa’s Clark are the only players from the power conferences who average 20 points, five rebounds and five assists.

The voting could come down to media exposure. Notre Dame has 10 nationally televised regular-season games compared to USC’s one. The Pac-12 Networks also have well-documented distribution issues.

So plenty of people across the country have yet to see Watkins, who three times has swept the Pac-12 Player of the Week and Freshman of the Week awards. She has won the latter award 13 times, a record that begs the additional question: Who else deserves to be on the Pac-12’s All-Freshman team?

Three players seem certain even given their difficulty getting noticed in Watkins’ lengthy shadow: Oregon State’s Donovyn Hunter, Washington State’s Eleonora Villa and Arizona’s Jada Williams.

Williams scored 14 of her 23 points against Stanford in the fourth quarter Friday as the Wildcats closed with a 19-3 run for a stunning 68-61 victory. She followed up with 18 points against Cal, earning her first Pac-12 Freshman of the Week award.

Watkins had 42 points (on efficient 10-of-19 shooting) in a win over Colorado and 30 in a loss to Utah. She was a combined 27-of-30 on free throws and even overcame 10 turnovers against Colorado.

Arizona sweeps (teams and awards)

Because USC’s seven-game win streak ended Sunday against Utah, the Wildcats enter this week with the longest winning streak in the conference at four games.

At the opposite end, Oregon has lost 11 in a row, tying a school record set in 1992-93.

Arizona won twice despite again being without leading scorer Kailyn Gilbert and having just seven players (before adding a walk-on to the roster on Sunday). Breya Cunningham fouled out with 2:58 left against Stanford, and the Wildcats still went on to complete the highest-ranked road win in school history.

“We believed we could walk in their house and win,” Williams said on the Pac-12 Networks.

“We’re playing like sisters. This wasn’t about me, it was about winning for my team and all the adversity we’ve been through this season. A lot of people thought we were going to bow down because we have seven people.”

Arizona coach Adia Barnes told a Tucson radio station that Gilbert “won’t be with the team for the rest of the year.” A sophomore, Gilbert could be transferring as she considered doing after last season.

Arizona is in seventh place in the Pac-12 – two games ahead of Washington State and Cal – and up to No. 33 in the NET ranking. That means an NCAA Tournament berth remains available entering home games against USC and UCLA.

The Wildcats’ Esmery Martinez won her first Pac-12 Player of the Week award for 17- and 20-point games against the Bay Area teams. She and Williams combined to give the Wildcats a sweep of the weekly awards.

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Only the SEC and Big Ten are sending more players to Indianapolis, where the on-field drills begin Thursday and run through the weekend.

(Last year, the Pac-12 had just 31 players invited.)

Washington leads the conference with 13 participants, second only to Michigan’s total of 18.

The NFL Network will televise the on-field workouts, although one of the most intriguing sessions will unfold during the medical exams.

Here are five storylines to watch:

1. The first-round lineup

There is more to the Pac-12’s representation than quantity. Six players project as likely first-round picks — the list starts with USC quarterback Caleb Williams, the consensus No. 1 overall selection — while several others are viewed as possible Day 1 prospects.

What’s more, six different teams could be represented in the first round, with Oregon State and Arizona joining the usual suspects (USC and Oregon).

OSU tackle Taliese Fuaga, a former three-star recruit, is considered a top-15 pick at this stage of the pre-draft process, while Arizona tackle Jordan Morgan is a potential late first-rounder.

This time next week, the Pac-12 could be tracking for its best draft in eons — just as it exits the college football stage.

2. Penix, poked and prodded

Based on his performance the past two seasons, Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. should be a first-round selection. Based on the season-ending injuries Penix sustained during his career at Indiana, he projects as a second- or third-day pick.

Scouts love his arm but hate his knee.

This week, doctors from all 32 teams will evaluate Penix, examine his scans and charts, then take their best guess on the stability of his surgically repaired ligaments.

He cannot change the past. But could something in the medical evaluations alter his future and transform Penix into a first-round selection in April, where he could join Williams and possibly Oregon quarterback Bo Nix?

3. How will they run?

Rarely has the Pac-12 produced a pair of receivers as talented and productive as Washington’s Rome Odunze and Oregon’s Troy Franklin.

Odunze is viewed as a lock for the first round, but how high?

Franklin is often projected as a second-round selection, but could he sneak into Day 1?

NFL Network analyst Bucky Brooks recently wrote of Franklin: “Considering how explosive plays routinely lead to points, Franklin’s big-play potential could send his stock soaring by the end of the pre-draft process.”

For each wideout, the 40-yard dash will be critical. Can they break the 4.4-second barrier?

Receivers are on the field Saturday, along with quarterbacks and running backs.

4. Holding the edge

The western third of the country is generally lacking in elite interior defensive linemen — the Big Ten and SEC produce an outsized share of prospects at that coveted position — but the conference is stocked with quality edge rushers.

UCLA’s Laiatu Latu received most of the attention during the 2023 season, was named Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year and stands as a likely first-round pick.

Several other edge prospects could sneak into the first round or the top of the second, including Washington’s Bralen Trice, Oregon’s Brandon Dorlus, Utah’s Jonah Elliss and Washington State’s Brennan Jackson.

The position group works out Thursday.

5. Old friends, new places

Devoted Pac-12 fans will see and hear a slew of familiar names during NFL Network’s combine coverage in the form of players who began their careers in the conference but transferred out.

The list starts with LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, who spent three seasons at Arizona State before leaving for the SEC — and winning the 2023 Heisman Trophy.

Fans might also remember ex-USC quarterback Kedon Slovis (Brigham Young) and former Stanford offensive tackle Walter Rouse (Oklahoma).

Then there’s former Arizona State receiver Johnny Wilson (Florida State) and, err, former Arizona State receiver Ricky Pearsall (Florida). Oh, and don’t forget about former Arizona State tackle LaDarius Henderson (Michigan).

And yes, one player on ASU’s 2023 roster was invited: defensive lineman Nesta Jade Silvera.

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But when it comes to postseason award winners, which are selected by the Pac-12 coaches, we have significant clarity.

The frontrunners are as follows …

Player of the Year: Arizona G Caleb Love

The leading scorer and chief playmaker on the conference’s best team would have our support if votes were due today (and if we had a vote). Love is averaging 21.4 points in conference games and has played well in big moments with 55 points in two games against Washington State and 36 at Oregon.

Coach of the Year: Washington State’s Kyle Smith

The Cougars were whacked by attrition last spring and picked 10th in the Pac-12 preseason media poll. Currently, they are one game out of first place and on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble — all with limited NIL resources. Smith is a leading candidate for national Coach of the Year honors, not to mention a fat new contract.

Freshman of the Year: Washington State G Myles Rice

If Rice’s candidacy were merely based on his court leadership and stellar production (15.4 points and 3.7 assists), he would have a strong case. Add his personal story — he missed the 2022-23 season because of cancer (Hodgkin’s lymphoma) — and the evidence is overwhelming.

Defensive Player of the Year: Arizona State G Frankie Collins

The disruptive dynamo leads the Pac-12 and is sixth in the country in steals per game (2.8). If Collins holds that pace through the remainder of the season, it would be the fourth-highest season average in the Pac-12 this century.

The Hotline will publish our selections for the postseason awards and all-conference teams after the regular season (but before the Pac-12 tournament).

To the power ratings …

1. Arizona (21-6/12-4)

Last week: 1
Results: lost to WSU 77-74, beat Washington 91-75
NET ranking: No. 3
Next up: at Arizona State (Wednesday)
Comment: If you’re curious about recent results in this series, know that Arizona has won three in a row in Tempe (by two, 12 and nine points) and blasted ASU by 45 points two weeks ago in McKale Center. Unless the Wildcats contribute heavily to their own demise, they should claim yet another victory over their in-state rivals.

2. Washington State (21-7/12-5)

Last week: 2
Results: won at Arizona 77-74, lost at ASU 73-61
NET ranking: No. 36
Next up: vs. USC (Thursday)
Comment: Life is so much easier as an upstart, but that existence ended the moment WSU won in Tucson last week. How will the Cougars perform as a frontrunner within the conference and on the brink of reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2008? We’re skeptical. In fact, the Hotline envisions a USC victory Thursday night.

3. Oregon (18-9/10-6)

Last week: 3
Results: won at Stanford 78-65, lost at Cal 69-64
NET ranking: No. 64
Next up: vs. Oregon State (Wednesday)
Comment: The Ducks performed with appropriate focus and energy in their pre-Arizona matchup last month, easily dispatching ASU in Matthew Knight Arena. The Beavers pose a more serious threat to Oregon before Dana Altman and Co. head to the desert later this week.

4. Colorado (18-9/9-7)

Last week: 5
Results: beat Utah 89-65
NET ranking: No. 35
Next up: vs. Cal (Wednesday)
Comment: In the race for the fourth seed in the Pac-12 tournament (and an opening-round bye), the Buffaloes possess an easier finishing schedule than UCLA. In fact, it’s significantly easier.

5. UCLA (14-13/9-8)

Last week: 4
Results: lost to USC 62-56
NET ranking: No. 112
Next up: at Washington (Thursday)
Comment: It wasn’t long ago that the Bruins were riding a five-game winning streak as they prepared for a three-game homestand. Who figured they would lose two of the three, along with every ounce of their hard-earned momentum?

6. Cal (13-15/9-8)

Last week: 7
Results: beat OSU 81-73 and Oregon 69-64
NET ranking: No. 115
Next up: at Colorado (Wednesday)
Comment: Not on our Pac-12 bingo card for the 2023-24 season: the Bears playing a meaningful game on the 28th day of February.

7. Utah (16-11/7-9)

Last week: 6
Results: lost at Colorado 89-65
NET ranking: No. 53
Next up: vs. Stanford (Thursday)
Comment: Will a team that has lost six of its past eight beat a team that has lost six of its past seven? The edge goes to the home team on Thursday night, but not by much: Stanford won in the Huntsman Center last season.

8. Arizona State (14-14/8-9)

Last week: 9
Results: lost to Washington 84-82 (OT), beat WSU 73-61
NET ranking: No. 126
Next up: vs. Arizona (Wednesday)
Comment: The Sun Devils’ only path to victory over Arizona is a low-scoring affair featuring an awful perimeter shooting performance by the visitors — something like 6-of-27 from 3-point range. If ASU needs 75 points to win, it has no chance.

9. Washington (15-13/7-10)

Last week: 10
Results: won at ASU 84-82 (OT), lost at Arizona 91-75
NET ranking: No. 69
Next up: vs. UCLA (Thursday)
Comment: UW’s season, an entirely predictable exercise in mediocrity, looks even worse when compared to what’s happening on the other side of the state.

10. Stanford (12-15/7-10)

Last week: 8
Results: lost to Oregon 78-65 and OSU 85-73
NET ranking: No. 116
Next up: at Utah (Thursday)
Comment: Stanford’s season, an entirely predictable exercise in mediocrity, looks even worse when compared to what’s happening on the other side of the Bay.

11. USC (11-16/5-11)

Last week: 11
Results: won at UCLA 62-56
NET ranking: No. 103
Next up: at Washington State (Thursday)
Comment: The Trojans have a clear path to the No. 11 seed in Las Vegas, which means UCLA must finish in sixth place to produce a delicious rubber match in the opening round.

12. Oregon State (12-16/4-13)

Last week: 12
Results: lost at Cal 81-73, won at Stanford 85-73
NET ranking: No. 167
Next up: at Oregon (Wednesday)
Comment: Jordan Pope belongs on the short list of good players on bad teams — and we’re talking nationally, not simply within the conference or the region. He’s terrific; his team is not.

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Theme of the week: State of the race

Despite a slew of upsets, the top tier of the conference standings looks the same today as it did when the week began. Arizona holds a one-game lead on Washington State, which holds a one-game lead over Oregon, which holds a one-game lead over UCLA. The only difference is the Bruins are tied for fourth place (with Colorado), not alone in fourth. Well, there’s another difference: WSU now owns the tiebreaker with Arizona if the teams finish deadlocked for first place.

Theme of the season: NCAA Tournament outlook

It’s not a pretty picture, folks. Only Arizona is a lock. WSU stands on the right side of the bubble and could have secured an at-large bid with a desert sweep, but the loss at ASU leaves the Cougars with work remaining: They would not survive a poor finish to the regular season and an early exit from the Pac-12 tournament. Utah and Colorado are on the NCAA bubble; Oregon is not; and UCLA has no shot at March Madness without a Pac-12 tournament title. The Hotline’s Over/Under for total bids (automatic and at-large) remains at 2.5.

Game of the week I: WSU 77, Arizona 74

The showdown for first place lived up to its billing with 10 ties, 13 lead changes and plenty of clutch baskets. The biggest came courtesy of WSU forward Jaylen Wells, who drained a 3-pointer from the left corner despite a foul on Keshad Johnson. The resulting four-point play with 24 seconds remaining gave the Cougars a 75-74 lead that held up through the final seconds as WSU completed a season sweep of the Wildcats and won in McKale Center for the second consecutive season.

Game of the week II: Washington 84, ASU 82 (OT)

We haven’t seen a wilder matchup this season than the rollicking affair that unfolded Thursday in Tempe. The Huskies led by 25 points early in the second half, only to let the advantage waste away as ASU pulled even on Frankie Collins’ layup with seven seconds left. Somehow, UW regrouped in overtime — and swept the season series with ASU — thanks to Braxton Meah’s free throws.

Coach of the week: Cal’s Mark Madsen

It was a rare week in the Pac-12 in that only one team recorded two wins. Even more unusual: That team was Cal. With their sweep of the Oregon schools, the Bears climbed over .500 in conference play and (if you can believe it) have a chance to claim one of the top four seeds in the Pac-12 tournament. Madsen would be a lock for Pac-12 Coach of the Year honors any other season but has WSU’s Kyle Smith directly in his path.

Player of the week: Arizona G Caleb Love

Love strengthened his case for Pac-12 Player of the Year honors with a 55-point weekend (plus 11 rebounds and 10 assists) against the Washington schools. His efficiency, an important piece of the Hotline’s weekly assessment, was first rate: Love scored his 55 points on just 39 field goal attempts. We also considered WSU’s Wells and Oregon State guard Jordan Pope.

Predictable win of the week: Arizona State

Credit the Sun Devils for playing well in their 73-61 victory over Washington State, especially coming off the overtime loss to Washington. That said, this was a prime letdown situation for the Cougars after their breakthrough two days earlier at Arizona, one of the biggest wins in program history. The result in Tempe, in other words, was easily foreseen based on the trends of both participants.

Predictable loss of the week: UCLA

The Bruins’ 62-56 faceplant at home against USC came as a surprise only to those who have not tracked this rivalry in recent years. Regardless of any disparity in talent or record, the Trojans usually play their best against UCLA — they have won eight of the past 13 meetings — and are quite comfortable in the backyard-brawl style the Bruins prefer. UCLA shot 21 percent from 3-point range and had far more turnovers (15) than assists (nine). “We were awful,” coach Mick Cronin said.

Bad loss of the week: Stanford

As it often does, the Cardinal is fading at just the wrong time. It has dropped four in a row and became the first Pac-12 team this season to lose at home to Oregon State. Even worse, Stanford wasn’t competitive down the stretch as the Beavers broke open a close game, outscoring the Cardinal 26-15 over the final eight minutes. It was one of the worst results of the Jerod Haase era — and there have been a lot of bad ones.

Fade of the month: Utah

The promising start to conference play has morphed into a difficult finish for Utah and third-year coach Craig Smith, whose team has yet to figure out how to win consistently on the road (1-7 away from home in conference play). The 89-65 loss at Colorado on Saturday marked the Utes’ sixth defeat in the past eight games. Once a contender for an opening-round bye in the Pac-12 tournament, Utah is now closer to last place than first.

Stat of the year: Cal

The Bears have nine conference wins, one shy of their combined total for the previous three seasons.

Game of next week: Oregon at Arizona (Saturday)

Third place visits first place on the penultimate weekend of the regular season in what could be a must-win for both teams, depending on the mid-week results. Arizona won the first meeting decisively in Eugene as Love blitzed the Ducks for 36 points. Tipoff is 11 a.m. Pacific on ESPN or ESPN2.

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