Each spring, as reliably as the changing of the seasons, Japan releases grim new population data that prompts handwringing in the press and vows by politicians to address the country’s demographic crisis.

It’s “now or never” to tackle declining births and the shrinking population, the country’s leader warned last year – nearly eight years after his predecessor had pledged to “confront the demographic problem head on.”

This year is no exception. The number of new births fell for an eighth consecutive year in 2023, reaching a record low and representing a 5.1% decline from the previous year, according to preliminary data released this week by the government.

The demographic crisis has become one of Japan’s most pressing issues, with multiple governments failing to reverse the double blow of a falling fertility rate and swelling elderly population. More people are dying than being born each year, causing the population to fall rapidly – with far-reaching consequences for Japan’s workforce, economy, welfare systems and social fabric.

Japan is far from the only country with this problem. Its East Asian neighbors, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea face similar issues, as do several European nations such as Spain and Italy.

A day after Japan released its preliminary data this week, South Korea released its own figures showing its fertility rate – the world’s lowest – dropped yet again in 2023.

Unlike many developed countries with low fertility rates, such as the United States, Japan and other East Asian nations have shied away from using immigration to bolster their population.

But Japan’s crisis is unique in that it’s been decades in the making, experts say – meaning its impact is particularly evident now, with relief unlikely to come anytime soon. So whatever path Japan takes will likely offer a roadmap for other countries facing unchartered territory, and a glimpse into their potential future.

‘Not reversible’

The first thing to understand about Japan’s population crisis is that it’s only partly behavioral, said James Raymo, professor of sociology and demography at Princeton University.

A much bigger part of the problem has to do with Japan’s history and how that has shaped its population structure, he said.

For a population to remain stable, it needs a fertility rate of 2.1, defined as the total number of births a woman has in her lifetime. A higher rate will see a population expand, with a large proportion of children and youth, as seen in India and many African nations.

But in Japan, “that measure of fertility has been below 2.1 for 50 years,” Raymo said. It fell below that level after the 1973 global oil crisis pushed economies into recession, and never climbed back up.

As of last year, Japan’s fertility rate sat at 1.3. It has stayed relatively flat for a while, meaning the average Japanese woman today is having roughly the same number of children as five or 10 years ago.

The real problem is that the fertility rate has been consistently low for so long. A country can recover if that rate only dips for a few years – but when it stays under 2.1 for decades, you get a population with much, much fewer young people than older adults.

Because of that skewed ratio, the total number of babies being born each year will continue to fall – even if women start having more kids – because the pool of women of childbearing age is already so small, and shrinking each year.

“It has to continue – it cannot not continue,” Raymo said. “Even if all of a sudden Japanese married couples started having three children on average … the population would continue to decline. The number of births would, for a while, still continue to decline. It’s not reversible.”

That means even if Japan manages to boost its fertility rate dramatically and immediately – which experts say is unrealistic – its population is bound to keep decreasing for at least several more decades until the skewed ratio balances out, and the babies being born now reach childbearing age themselves.

Official projections echo this prediction. According to models by the government’s Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), which were most recently revised last year, the population will fall 30% by 2070. At that point, the number of people age 65 and over will account for 40% of the population, it forecast.

What we’re seeing now “is zero surprise … and it will structurally continue for the foreseeable future,” Raymo said.

‘Drifted into singlehood’

There are many reasons for Japan’s low fertility rate – but the main problem is that people aren’t getting married in the first place, Raymo said.

Single parents, or children born to unmarried mothers, are far less common in Japan than many Western countries. Thus, fewer marriages means fewer babies overall.

The number of marriages in Japan declined nearly 6% in 2023 from the previous year – dipping below 500,000 for the first time in 90 years, according to the preliminary data released this week. Divorces also rose 2.6% last year.

Experts have pointed to Japan’s high cost of living, stagnant economy and wages, limited space, and the country’s demanding work culture as reasons fewer people are opting to date or marry.

Japanese people’s “willingness to form a family … has declined considerably,” according to a 2022 survey by the IPSS. Among single adults who have never wed, fewer say they intend to get married compared to previous years – while more say they wouldn’t be lonely even if they continued living alone. About one third said they did not want a relationship.

For women, economic costs are not the only turn off. Japan remains a highly patriarchal society in which married women are often expected to take the caregiver role, despite government efforts to get husbands more involved.

For all these reasons, many people are “ambivalent about marriage,” postponing it for years – “and then they’re 35, they’re 40, and they’ve sort of drifted into singlehood,” Raymo said.

Many of these issues are also plaguing other East Asian nations with their own population woes. Marriage rates have plummeted in China, where women are more educated and financially independent than ever. In South Korea, only one third of young people feel positively about marriage, according to polls, with many saying they don’t have enough money for marriage or feel it’s simply not necessary.

Most East Asian nations have also declined to legalize gay marriage, parenting and adoption rights, making it far harder for LGBTQ citizens to become parents.

What does Japan’s future look like?

The impact of the population crisis is evident.

Industries are feeling labor shortages; jobs are hard to fill, with fewer young adults entering the workforce; some rural communities are dying out, with one village that went 25 years without any new births.

Even in cities, things are changing – with many service jobs occupied by young immigrants, or students from countries such as China or Vietnam, Raymo said.

The government has spent years pushing various initiatives to encourage marriage and childbirth, such as enhancing child care services or offering housing subsidies. Some towns are even paying couples to have kids.

But given the decline is expected to continue for at least several decades, Japan will likely feel the blow to its pension and health care systems, and other social infrastructure that is difficult to maintain with a shrinking workforce.

That’s not to say Japan is doomed, Raymo asserted – the fertility rate will likely even out at some point, and the country will adjust. But that will take time, and Japan needs to prepare itself for “a really bumpy ride to a new equilibrium.”

There are a few ways that ride could play out. We could see a “massive mechanization of society,” meaning human labor being replaced by machines, Raymo said. As the population falls, some problems like the high cost of living, or overcrowding in Toyko could begin to ease. One theory suggests that fewer people means less competition for things like university admission and jobs.

But for now, this is all speculation. No country has been in this position before. And, Raymo said, the “only likely large-scale response” the government can implement is “mass immigration on a level Japan has never experienced.”

Immigration is a controversial issue in Japan, a largely conservative country that perceives itself as ethnically homogenous. It has historically failed to integrate previous waves of foreign workers and has instead relied on temporary fixes such as employing foreigners on student visas. Foreign residents and Japanese nationals of mixed ethnicity have long complained of xenophobia, racism and discrimination.

Japan may not have a choice, however. A 2022 report by a Tokyo-based research organization found that Japan needs about four times as many foreign workers by 2040 to achieve the government’s economic goals.

And authorities have shifted that direction in recent years, creating new visa categories and considering proposals to allow certain types of skilled workers to stay indefinitely. The IPSS’ models predict that by 2070, “the pace of population decline is expected to slow down slightly, mainly due to the increase in international migration.”

Decades down the line, the new Japan “might be a slightly poorer country, and a slightly less generous country in terms of policy support for elderly and families,” Raymo said.

“I can imagine a much smaller and a much different Japan,” he said. “But I don’t imagine an empty Japan.”

MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed Thursday to fulfill Moscow’s goals in Ukraine and sternly warned the West against deeper involvement in the fighting, saying that such a move is fraught with the risk of a global nuclear conflict.

Putin’s blunt warning came in a state-of-the-nation address ahead of next month’s election he’s all but certain to win, underlining his readiness to raise the stakes in the tug-of-war with the West to protect the Russian gains in Ukraine.

In an apparent reference to French President Emmanuel Macron’s statement earlier this week that the future deployment of Western ground troops to Ukraine should not be “ruled out”, Putin warned that it would lead to “tragic” consequences for the countries who decide to do that.

Putin noted that while accusing Russia of plans to attack NATO allies in Europe, Western allies were “selecting targets for striking our territory” and “talking about the possibility of sending a NATO contingent to Ukraine.”

“We remember the fate of those who sent their troop contingents to the territory of our country,” the Russian leader said in an apparent allusion to the failed invasions by Napoleon and Hitler. “Now the consequences for the potential invaders will be far more tragic.”

In a two-hour speech before an audience of lawmakers and top officials, Putin cast Western leaders as reckless and irresponsible and declared that the West should keep in mind that “we also have the weapons that can strike targets on their territory, and what they are now suggesting and scaring the world with, all that raises the real threat of a nuclear conflict that will mean the destruction of our civilization.”

The strong statement followed earlier warnings from Putin, who has issued frequent reminders of Russia’s nuclear might since he sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022 as he sought to discourage the West from expanding its military support for Kyiv.

Putin emphasized that Russia’s nuclear forces are in “full readiness,” saying that the military has deployed potent new weapons, some of them tested on the battlefield in Ukraine.

The Kremlin leader said they include the new Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile that has entered service with Russian nuclear forces, along with the Burevestnik atomic-powered cruise missile and the Poseidon atomic-powered, nuclear-armed drone, which are completing their tests.

At the same time, he rejected Western leaders’ statements about the threat of a Russian attack on NATO allies in Europe as “ravings” and again dismissed Washington’s claim that Moscow was pondering the deployment of space-based nuclear weapons.

Putin charged that the U.S. allegations were part of a ploy to draw Russia into talks on nuclear arms control on American terms even as Washington continues its efforts to deliver a “strategic defeat” to Moscow in Ukraine.

“Ahead of the U.S. election, they just want to show their citizens, as well as others, that they continue to rule the world,” he said. “It won’t work.”

In his speech that focused heavily on economic and social issues ahead of the March 15-17 presidential vote, Putin argued that Russia was “defending its sovereignty and security and protecting our compatriots” in Ukraine, charging that the Russian forces have the upper hand in the fighting.

He reaffirmed his claim that the West was bent on destroying Russia, saying “they need a dependent, waning, dying space in the place of Russia so that they can do whatever they want.”

Putin has repeatedly said that he sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022 to protect Russian interests and prevent Ukraine from posing a major security threat to Russia by joining NATO. Kyiv and its allies have denounced it as an unprovoked act of aggression.

The Russian leader has repeatedly signaled a desire to negotiate an end to the fighting but warned that Russia will hold onto its gains.

Putin, 71, who is running as an independent candidate in the March 15-17 presidential election, relies on the tight control over Russia’s political system that he has established during 24 years in power.

Prominent critics who could challenge him have either been imprisoned or are living abroad, while most independent media have been banned, meaning that Putin’s reelection is all but assured. He faces token opposition from three other candidates nominated by Kremlin-friendly parties represented in parliament.

Russia’s best-known opposition leader Alexei Navalny, whose attempt to run against Putin in 2018 was rejected, died suddenly in an Arctic prison colony earlier this month, while serving a 19-year sentence on extremism charges. Navalny’s funeral is set for Friday.

TORONTO — Brian Mulroney, the former Canadian prime minister who forged closer ties with the United States through a sweeping free trade agreement and whose Progressive Conservative party suffered a devastating defeat just after he left office, died Thursday. He was 84.

The country’s 18th prime minister died peacefully and surrounded by family, his daughter Caroline Mulroney said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. Mulroney’s family said this past summer that he was improving daily after a heart procedure that followed treatment for prostate cancer in early 2023.

Leader of the Progressive Conservative party from 1983 to 1993, Mulroney served almost a decade as prime minister after he was first elected in 1984 after snagging the largest majority in Canadian history with 211 of 282 seats.

The win would mark Canada’s first Conservative majority government in 26 years. His government was re-elected in 1988.

Mulroney entered the job with massive support, but he left with the lowest approval rating in Canadian history. In the years since, more recent prime ministers sought his advice.

“Brian Mulroney loved Canada. I’m devastated to learn of his passing. He never stopped working for Canadians, and he always sought to make this country an even better place to call home,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a statement.

“As we mourn his passing and keep his family and friends in our thoughts, let us also acknowledge – and celebrate – Mr. Mulroney’s role in building the modern, dynamic, and prosperous country we all know today,” Trudeau said.

The man known for his charm and Irish blarney — a gift for the gab — was an ardent advocate of stronger U.S.-Canadian relations. He eulogized two American presidents.

He pushed a free trade deal forward in no small part due to his chumminess with U.S. President Ronald Reagan.

Few Canadians around during his reign have forgotten the widely broadcast Mulroney-Reagan duet of “When Irish Eyes Are Smiling” at the Shamrock summit in Quebec City in 1985, named after the pair’s Irish heritage and the fact that the summit fell on St. Patrick’s Day. The 24-hour meeting opened the door to future free trade talks between the countries.

Along with a fan base of fellow conservative Margaret Thatcher, Mulroney can also boast of an enduring friendship with former President George H.W. Bush.

Mulroney delivered a eulogy for Bush’s state funeral.

Mulroney also eulogized Reagan in 2004. Mulroney, Reagan and Bush became friends when they shared the world stage as leaders of their countries during the last decade of the Cold War.

Mulroney’s nine years in power overlapped with Bush’s four.

It was Mulroney’s amiable relationship with his southern counterparts that helped develop the free-trade treaty, a hotly contested pact at the time. The trade deal led to a permanent realignment of the Canadian economy and huge increases in north-south trade.

However, Mulroney’s administration was saddled with scandals and his near decade reign as prime minister came crashing down in 1993 when voters delivered a devastating election defeat to his Progressive Conservative Party, leaving it with just two seats in the 295-member House of Commons. He left shortly before the election result.

The defeat came amid widespread unhappiness over Canada’s then-depressed economy. Canadians blamed Mulroney of failing to address a 3-year-old recession that left a record number of people out of work or bankrupt.

Under his leadership, a much-criticized 7% sales tax was pushed through, as well as the 1988 U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement, after more than 100 years of tariff protection. The agreement later included Mexico in 1994, evolving into the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The Quebec-born, half-Irish, “boy from Baie-Comeau” (a small-town in the French-speaking province) leader campaigned hard on the trade agreements following his first term.

But many constituents were opposed to the treaty, concerned that the agreement would jeopardize Canadian sovereignty. Critics blamed the rising unemployment during the late ’80s and early ’90s in Canada on factors such as businesses moving south to escape higher Canadian taxes and labor costs.

Former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper noted that Mulroney was vilified for the free trade deal during his leadership but said that history will remember him as the leader who set Canada on a path to unprecedented economic growth and prosperity.

Mulroney was born March 20, 1939, in Baie-Comeau, an isolated smelting town on Quebec’s North Shore.

Hired as a labor lawyer by Montreal’s largest law firm, Ogilvy Renault, he later became the president of the Iron Ore Company of Canada, a subsidiary of Cleveland-based Hanna Mining.

Mulroney leaves behind wife Mila Mulroney and four children: Caroline, Ben, Mark and Nicolas.

WASHINGTON — A federal judge held veteran investigative reporter Catherine Herridge in civil contempt on Thursday for refusing to divulge her source for a series of stories during her time at Fox News about a Chinese American scientist who was investigated by the FBI but never charged.

U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper in Washington imposed a fine of $800 dollars per day until Herridge complies, but the fine will not go into effect immediately to give her time to appeal.

A lawyer for Herridge, Patrick Philbin, declined to comment.

The source is being sought by Yanpin Chen, who has sued the government over the leak of details about the federal probe into statements she made on immigration forms related to work on a Chinese astronaut program.

Herridge, who was recently laid off by CBS News, published an investigative series for Fox News in 2017 that examined Chen’s ties to the Chinese military and raised questions about whether the scientist was using a professional school she founded in Virginia to help the Chinese government get information about American servicemembers.

The stories relied on what her lawyers contend were items leaked from the probe, including snippets of an FBI document summarizing an interview conducted during the investigation, personal photographs, and information taken from her immigration and naturalization forms and from an internal FBI PowerPoint presentation.

Chen sued the FBI and Justice Department in 2018, saying her personal information was selectively leaked to “smear her reputation and damage her livelihood.”

The judge had ordered Herridge in August to answer questions about her source or sources in a deposition with Chen’s lawyers. The judge ruled that Chen’s need to know for the sake of her lawsuit overcomes Herridge’s right to shield her source, despite the “vital importance of a free press and the critical role” that confidential sources play in journalists’ work.

MONTGOMERY, Ala. — Facing public pressure to get in vitro fertilization services restarted, Alabama lawmakers moved closer to approving protections for fertility clinics that shut down after a state court ruled that frozen embryos are the legal equivalent of children.

Both chambers of the Alabama Legislature advanced bills Thursday that would shield clinics from prosecution and civil lawsuits. Each bill now moves to the opposite chamber for debate. Bill sponsor Rep. Terri Collins said they are aiming to get the measure approved and to the governor on Wednesday.

“This would at least keep the clinics open and the families moving forward,” Collins said. She described the legislation as a temporary fix while lawmakers weigh if additional action is needed.

The Alabama Supreme Court ruled in mid-February that three couples who had frozen embryos destroyed in an accident at a storage facility could pursue wrongful death lawsuits for their “extrauterine children.” The ruling, treating an embryo the same as a child or gestating fetus under the wrongful death statute, raised concerns about civil liabilities for clinics. Three major providers announced a pause on IVF services.

Republicans’ proposal focused on lawsuit protections instead of attempting to address the legal status of embryos. The legislation would shield providers from prosecution and civil lawsuits related to the “damage to or death of an embryo” during IVF services.

The bills advanced with broad bipartisan support. Representatives voted 94-6 for the proposal, and state senators voted 32-0 for it.

Some Republicans said they want to consider future restriction on what happens to unused embryos.

Republican Rep. Ernie Yarbrough of Trinity tried unsuccessfully to put an amendment on the bill that would prohibit clinics from intentionally discarding embryos that are unused or after genetic testing.

Republican Rep. Mark Gidley of Hokes Bluff said he wants lawmakers to consider putting regulation on fertility clinics.

“This is what is important to me and a lot of members of this House. Understand, that once that is fertilized, it begins to grow, even though it may not be in a woman’s uterus,” Gidley said.
A Democratic lawmaker said the state, which has a stringent abortion ban with no exceptions for rape, has spent too much time interfering with the decisions of women.

“I am so tired of folks telling me as a female in Alabama what I’m going to do with my own body. It’s time that we stop this,” Democratic Rep. Barbara Drummond of Mobile said. She said a woman texted her this morning asking if the state would take “custody” and responsibility of her frozen embryos if they are now considered children.

Democrats in the Alabama Senate had unsuccessfully tried to amend the bill to state that a human embryo outside a uterus can not be considered an unborn child or human being under state law. Sen. Linda Coleman-Madison, a Democrat from Birmingham, said that was the most direct way to deal with the issue. Republicans blocked the amendment from coming up for a vote.

Rep. Chris England, a Democrat from Tuscaloosa, said lawmakers may be able to provide a temporary solution through legislation but a long-term solution must address the 2018 constitutional amendment, which he said essentially established “personhood” for embryos.

“There are far-reaching ramifications of personhood,” England said.

More than 200 IVF patients filled the Statehouse on Wednesday pressuring lawmakers to get IVF services restarted in the state. They showed lawmakers babies created through IVF treatment or described how the ruling halted their path to parenthood.

LeeLee Ray underwent eight miscarriages, one ectopic pregnancy and multiple surgeries before turning to surrogacy in hopes of having a child. She and her husband found a surrogate through a matching program, but now can’t have their embryos transferred to her and are unable to move their embryos out of state.

“I’m just frustrated. We had a light at the end of the tunnel,” Ray said Wednesday.

Jack Teixeira, the Air National Guardsman accused of posting a trove of classified documents online, is expected to plead guilty to federal charges on Monday, according to a source familiar with the matter.

In a court filing Thursday, prosecutors in Boston asked for a so-called Rule 11 hearing – proceedings to discuss a change of plea. He previously pleaded not guilty.

Teixeira, a Massachusetts native who was 21 when he was arrested, is charged with six counts of willful retention and transmission of classified information related to national defense. It is not yet clear what charge he plans to plead guilty to, nor what any potential deal he struck with prosecutors looks like.

Teixeira has been held in federal custody since his arrest in April.

CNN has reached out to the Justice Department for comment.

Teixeira faces spending decades in prison if convicted. Typically, any deal struck between criminal defense attorneys and prosecutors would include a lower range of potential prison time, though any eventual sentence is up to a judge.

According to prosecutors, Teixeira, a junior enlisted airman who worked within the Massachusetts Air National Guard’s 102nd Intelligence Wing, was repeatedly warned by his superiors over inappropriately accessing classified intelligence.

The documents, some of which have been reviewed by CNN, included a wide range of highly classified information, including eavesdropping on key allies and adversaries and blunt assessments on the state of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Once the document leak was discovered, law enforcement embarked on a sprawling and fast-moving search for the leaker’s identity.

Prosecutors allege that after the leak was publicized, Teixeira destroyed his electronics and obtained a new phone number and email address. He was taken into custody at his home in Massachusetts about a week later, CNN reported.

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (AP) — Donald Trump’s campaign has vowed not to talk about her anymore. Many pundits have written her off entirely. But Nikki Haley is still campaigning across the country — and plenty of Republican voters are coming to hear what she has to say.

Before packed audiences in states that will vote on Super Tuesday next week, Haley is making the case she laid out after losing the primary in her home state of South Carolina: Roughly 40% of GOP voters support her over Trump, suggesting their party’s dominant figure is especially vulnerable in a November rematch against President Joe Biden.

“He lost 40% of the primary vote in all of the early states,” she told more than 500 people at a campaign event in the politically mixed suburb of Bloomington, Minnesota, on Monday. “You can’t win the general election if you can’t win that 40%.”

Trump is on the verge of winning several hundred more delegates for the GOP nomination on Super Tuesday and could eliminate Haley by clinching the nomination a few weeks later. But by staying in the race longer than any other major candidate, Haley has highlighted Trump’s political problems with key constituencies in their party and suggested that he is a “sinking ship.”

Trump won about 51% of voters in the Iowa caucuses, 54% in New Hampshire’s primaries and 60% in South Carolina. Haley didn’t come close to winning 40% in Michigan’s primary this week and instead lost to Trump by more than 40 points, 68% to 27%.

But just as she has throughout the primary, Haley did better in suburban areas like Oakland County near Detroit and Ottawa County near Grand Rapids. She also did better in Kent County, where Grand Rapids and a large suburban population is located.

Biden flipped Kent County and improved on Democrats’ 2016 performance in Oakland County on the way to winning Michigan in 2020 and beating Trump in the election.

Richard Czuba, a pollster who has long tracked Michigan politics, said Haley’s results were more significant for understanding a critical swing state in the general election than the campaign to vote “uncommitted” against Biden to protest his handling of the Israel-Hamas war, which drew about 100,000 votes and collected two Democratic delegates.

“This is by far, to me, the one narrative we saw (Tuesday) that will have major implications in November,” Czuba said.

Trump declined to mention Haley, his former U.N. ambassador, after beating her in South Carolina, and his campaign has accused her of deluding voters about her chances.

“She can’t name one state she can win, let alone be competitive in,” spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a recent statement.

Haley indeed resisted naming a state she could win when questioned by The Associated Press and other media. But interviews with three dozen voters at her rallies and AP VoteCast data from the Republican primary suggest several vulnerabilities for Trump heading into a Biden rematch.

About half of Republican voters in South Carolina — including about a quarter of his supporters — are concerned that Trump is too extreme to win the general election, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 2,400 voters taking part in the Republican primary in South Carolina, conducted for AP by NORC at the University of Chicago.

Trump allies have accused Haley of appealing to the left to vote in open Republican primaries. Some 19% of Haley voters in South Carolina identified themselves as Democrats or people who lean Democratic, according to AP VoteCast. But 72% were Republicans or lean toward the GOP.

About 3 in 10 South Carolina primary voters believe he acted illegally in at least one of the criminal cases against him, even though about three-quarters believe the investigations are political attempts to undermine him.

“We’ve been tightening the belt as much as we can, but can’t think about having kids until we can afford it,” said Jonathan Paquette, a 27-year-old contractor from Minnetonka, Minnesota, a suburb of the Twin Cities. “That’s the kind of discussion this campaign should be about, not about lawsuits and criminal indictments. That doesn’t solve any of our problems.”

Lori Jacobson, a 64-year-old retired lab technician from Monticello, a small town northwest of the Twin Cities, said Trump “repulses me.” She voted for Trump in 2016 but not 2020.

“It’s all about revenge with him,” Jacobson said. Haley, she said, “has a calm that stands in such contrast to him, though she is a very strong woman.”

Across the states where Haley’s post-South Carolina campaign has gone, some voters have picked up on that messaging.

“Forty percent is better than no percent,” said Alyssa Prevo, an Uber driver from Williamston, Michigan, as she waited for Haley ahead of a Monday event in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Prevo, a military veteran, described herself as a longtime Republican, although she said she had voted for Democratic candidates in the past.

“Forty percent is a lot, it’s not a little, even though she lost her home state,” Prevo said. “People focus on the losing, I don’t. She has integrity. And for me, the umbrella, integrity, is everything she has under that.”

Nearly 9 in 10 Haley voters in South Carolina said they would not be satisfied with Trump as the Republican Party’s presidential nominee, about 7 in 10 say he does not have the mental capability to serve effectively as president, and about 6 in 10 say they would not ultimately vote for him.

Given the primary race’s current trajectory, the Trump campaign may not have to address Haley again — and they expect that many disaffected Republicans will return to the former president’s side in a Biden-Trump rematch.

Haley could lose any mathematical chance of becoming the nominee in the next few weeks as more states hold “winner-take-all” primaries that would let Trump sweep their delegates even if Haley closes the gap with him.

For now, Haley and her aides say they aren’t planning beyond Super Tuesday. Indeed, Haley has not said where she’ll campaign after those contests. And her campaign has yet to book any television or digital advertising beyond Super Tuesday, according to media tracking firm AdImpact.

“That’s as far as we’ve thought so far,” Haley said Saturday. “We’ve taken it one state, one month at a time, and focused on that — that’s what’s gotten us to this moment is discipline, hard work, being smarter than everybody else and making sure that we do whatever it takes to scrappy as we need, to get to the finish line.”

Thomson-DeVeaux reported from Washington. Associated Press reporters Joey Cappelletti in Lansing, Michigan, and Thomas Beaumont in Bloomington, Minnesota, contributed to this report.

WASHINGTON — Congress passed another short-term spending measure Thursday that would keep one set of federal agencies operating through March 8 and another set through March 22, avoiding a shutdown for parts of the federal government that would otherwise kick in Saturday. The bill now goes to President Joe Biden to be signed into law.

The short-term extension is the fourth in recent months, and many lawmakers expect it to be the last for the current fiscal year. House Speaker Mike Johnson said negotiators had completed six of the annual spending bills that fund federal agencies and had “almost final agreement on the others.”

“We’ll get the job done,” Johnson said as he exited a closed-door meeting with Republican colleagues.

The House acted first Thursday. The vote to approve the extension was 320-99. It easily cleared the two-thirds majority needed for passage. Democrats overwhelmingly voted to avert a partial shutdown. But the vote was much more divided with Republicans, 113 in support and 97 against.

The Senate then took up the bill and approved it during an evening vote of 77-13.

“When we pass this bill, we will have, thank God, avoided a shutdown with all its harmful effects on the American people,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said moments before the vote.

Next week, the House and Senate are expected to take up a package of six spending bills and get them to the president before March 8. Then, lawmakers would work to fund the rest of the government by the new March 22 deadline.

At the end of the process, Congress is expected to have approved more than $1.6 trillion in spending for the fiscal year that began Oct. 1. That amount is roughly in line with the previous fiscal year and is what former Speaker Kevin McCarthy negotiated with the White House last year before eight disgruntled Republican lawmakers joined with Democrats a few months later and voted to oust him from the position.

Some of the House’s most conservative members wanted deeper cuts for non-defense programs than that agreement allowed through its spending caps. They also sought an array of policy changes that Democrats opposed. They were hoping the prospect of a shutdown could leverage more concessions.

“Last I checked, the Republicans actually have a majority in the House of Representatives, but you wouldn’t know it if you looked at our checkbook because we are all too willing to continue the policy choices of Joe Biden and the spending levels of Nancy Pelosi,” said Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla.

But Rep. Chuck Fleischmann, R-Tenn., countered before the vote that shutdowns are damaging and encouraged lawmakers to vote for the short-term extension.

“I want the American people to know, Mr. Speaker, that this negotiation has been difficult, but to close the government down at a time like this would hurt people who should not be hurt,” Fleischmann said.

The split within the GOP conference on spending and their tiny House majority bogged down the efforts to get the bills passed on a timely basis. With the Senate also struggling to complete work on all 12 appropriations bills, lawmakers have resorted to a series of short-term measures to keep the government funded.

Republican leadership said that the broader funding legislation being teed up for votes in March would lead to spending cuts for many nondefense agencies. By dividing the spending bill up into chunks, they are hoping to avoid an omnibus bill — a massive, all-encompassing bill that lawmakers generally had little time to digest or understand before voting on it. Republicans vowed there would be no omnibus this time.

“When you take away Defense and Veterans Affairs, the rest of the agencies are going to be seeing spending cuts in many cases,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La. “There are also some policy changes that we pushed through the House that will be in the final product. Of course, some of those are still being negotiated.”

The temporary extension funds the departments of Agriculture, Transportation, Interior and others through March 8. It funds the Pentagon, Homeland Security, Health and Human Services and the State Department through March 22.

While congressional leaders have said they’ve reached final agreement on what will be in the first package of spending bills voted on next week, there’s still room for an impasse on the second package to be voted on later in the month.

“We are working in a divided government. That means to get anything done, we have to work together, in good faith to reach reasonable outcomes,” said Sen. Patty Murray, the Democratic chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

The renewed focus on this year’s spending bills doesn’t include the separate, $95.3 billion aid package that the Senate approved for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan earlier this month, with much of that money being spent in the U.S. to replenish America’s military arsenal. The bill also contained about $9 billion in humanitarian assistance for civilians in Gaza and the West Bank, Ukraine and other war zones.

Biden summoned congressional leaders to the White House on Tuesday, during which he and others urged Johnson to also move forward with the aid package. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the U.S. can’t afford to wait months to provide more military assistance to Ukraine, which is running short of the arms and ammunition necessary to repel Russia’s military invasion.

“We’ve got a lot of priorities before us, but we have to get the government funded and secure our border and then we’ll address everything else,” Johnson told reporters upon exiting his meeting with GOP colleagues.

Democrats urged quicker action on Ukraine as the temporary spending bill was debated.

“Without swift action, the legacy of this Congress will be the destruction of Ukraine, the appeasement of a dictator, and the abandonment of starving children and ailing families,” said Rep. Rosa DeLauro, the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee.

MIAMI — A former career U.S. diplomat said in court Thursday that he will plead guilty to charges of serving as a secret agent for communist Cuba going back decades, bringing a lightning fast resolution to a case prosecutors described as one of the most brazen betrayals in the history of the U.S. foreign service.

Manuel Rocha, 73, told a federal judge he would admit to two federal counts of conspiring to act as an agent of a foreign government, charges that carry a maximum penalty of between 5 and 10 years in prison each. In exchange, prosecutors agreed to drop 13 additional counts for crimes including wire fraud and making false statements.

Prosecutors and Rocha’s attorney indicated they have agreed upon a sentence but details were not disclosed in court Thursday. He is due back in court on April 12, when he’s likely to be sentenced.

“I am in agreement,” said Rocha, shackled at the hands and ankles, when asked by U.S. District Court Judge Beth Bloom if he wished to change his plea to guilty.

Rocha was arrested by the FBI at his Miami home in December on allegations that he engaged in “clandestine activity” on Cuba’s behalf since at least 1981 — the year he joined the U.S. foreign service — including by meeting with Cuban intelligence operatives and providing false information to U.S. government officials about his contacts.

Federal authorities have said little about exactly what Rocha did to assist Cuba while working at the State Department for two decades at posts in Argentina, Bolivia, Mexico and the U.S. Interests Section in Havana. He followed that with a lucrative post-government career that included a stint as a special adviser to the commander of the U.S. Southern Command.

Instead, the case relies largely on what prosecutors say were Rocha’s own admissions, made over the past year to an undercover FBI agent posing as a Cuban intelligence operative named “Miguel.”

In those recordings, Rocha praised the late Cuban leader Fidel Castro as “Comandante,” branded the U.S. the “enemy” and bragged about his service for more than 40 years as a Cuban mole in the heart of U.S. foreign policy circles, the complaint says.

“What we have done … it’s enormous … more than a Grand Slam,” he was quoted as saying in one of several secretly recorded conversations.

Rocha’s decision to plead guilty Thursday came just hours after the widow of a prominent Cuban dissident killed in a mysterious car crash filed a wrongful death lawsuit against the former diplomat. The lawsuit accuses Rocha of sharing intelligence that emboldened Cuba’s communist leaders to assassinate a chief opponent.

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For Tuesday’s election, only one school district in Santa Clara County has proposed a bond measure to raise money for constructing and rehabilitating education facilities.

Sunnyvale School District voters should approve Measure C. But they and all Californians should recognize the teachable moment the measure presents about inequities in how we fund school construction.

The lesson starts with understanding that issuing bonds is a form of borrowing, much like a mortgage. The money must be paid back.

So, school bond measures are also property tax measures, with the money raised used to pay off the debt. The total tax needed depends in part on the amount of money borrowed, interest rate for the bonds and duration of the payback period.

The responsibility for paying off the bonds is divided between property owners based on the assessed valuation of their properties. Those properties include homes and commercial properties.

The moral of the story: If a school district has a lot of high-valued commercial properties within its boundaries — like, say, those belonging to major technology companies — the impact on homeowners is less.

Sunnyvale is one of those school districts blessed with key technology companies. And that’s how the district can propose to issue $214 million more in bonds and still have relatively low homeowner tax rates for paying off the loans.

Here are the numbers for Measure C: The $214 million in new borrowing would be added to three prior voter-approved bond measures. Combined, the four measures would have about $900 million in principal and interest to pay off by about 2059.

Without Measure C, property owners next year would pay about $33 for every $100,000 of assessed value. Measure C would add another $15 per $100,000 of assessed value.

If Measure C passes, the owners of a single-family home in the district with an average assessed valuation of $864,000 would see their annual supplemental tax bill for the district’s school bonds increase from about $285 to $415.

That’s very low for so much bond debt in a small district, but it’s possible in large part because of the values of commercial property in the district. Most school districts in the Bay Area would be envious.

To be sure, because the Sunnyvale district only covers students for pre-kindergarten and K-8, property owners must also pay taxes on bonds for the Fremont Union High School District, which also includes much of Cupertino.

That district also benefits from being able to spread out bond costs over its lucrative commercial tax base. Between Sunnyvale and Cupertino, the Fremont Union district has properties owned by companies such as Google, Apple, Lockheed, LinkedIn and Applied Materials.

For comparison, Hayward, where commercial and residential property values are less, is proposing a bond measure that would result in about the same amount of total debt, but the tax rate would be about 75% more.

The other key factor to consider in evaluating Measure C is how the bond money would be spent. And there, Sunnyvale has a well-thought-out spending plan for upgrading and modernizing schools that’s spelled out in the district’s facilities master plan. They’ve broken down the allocations for each of nine different school sites.

The inequity between school districts in California is stark. Homeowners in the Sunnyvale district are lucky they don’t have to spend more on school bond taxes. Leaders of other districts wish they could so easily afford the same.