Each spring, as reliably as the changing of the seasons, Japan releases grim new population data that prompts handwringing in the press and vows by politicians to address the country’s demographic crisis.

It’s “now or never” to tackle declining births and the shrinking population, the country’s leader warned last year – nearly eight years after his predecessor had pledged to “confront the demographic problem head on.”

This year is no exception. The number of new births fell for an eighth consecutive year in 2023, reaching a record low and representing a 5.1% decline from the previous year, according to preliminary data released this week by the government.

The demographic crisis has become one of Japan’s most pressing issues, with multiple governments failing to reverse the double blow of a falling fertility rate and swelling elderly population. More people are dying than being born each year, causing the population to fall rapidly – with far-reaching consequences for Japan’s workforce, economy, welfare systems and social fabric.

Japan is far from the only country with this problem. Its East Asian neighbors, including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea face similar issues, as do several European nations such as Spain and Italy.

A day after Japan released its preliminary data this week, South Korea released its own figures showing its fertility rate – the world’s lowest – dropped yet again in 2023.

Unlike many developed countries with low fertility rates, such as the United States, Japan and other East Asian nations have shied away from using immigration to bolster their population.

But Japan’s crisis is unique in that it’s been decades in the making, experts say – meaning its impact is particularly evident now, with relief unlikely to come anytime soon. So whatever path Japan takes will likely offer a roadmap for other countries facing unchartered territory, and a glimpse into their potential future.

‘Not reversible’

The first thing to understand about Japan’s population crisis is that it’s only partly behavioral, said James Raymo, professor of sociology and demography at Princeton University.

A much bigger part of the problem has to do with Japan’s history and how that has shaped its population structure, he said.

For a population to remain stable, it needs a fertility rate of 2.1, defined as the total number of births a woman has in her lifetime. A higher rate will see a population expand, with a large proportion of children and youth, as seen in India and many African nations.

But in Japan, “that measure of fertility has been below 2.1 for 50 years,” Raymo said. It fell below that level after the 1973 global oil crisis pushed economies into recession, and never climbed back up.

As of last year, Japan’s fertility rate sat at 1.3. It has stayed relatively flat for a while, meaning the average Japanese woman today is having roughly the same number of children as five or 10 years ago.

The real problem is that the fertility rate has been consistently low for so long. A country can recover if that rate only dips for a few years – but when it stays under 2.1 for decades, you get a population with much, much fewer young people than older adults.

Because of that skewed ratio, the total number of babies being born each year will continue to fall – even if women start having more kids – because the pool of women of childbearing age is already so small, and shrinking each year.

“It has to continue – it cannot not continue,” Raymo said. “Even if all of a sudden Japanese married couples started having three children on average … the population would continue to decline. The number of births would, for a while, still continue to decline. It’s not reversible.”

That means even if Japan manages to boost its fertility rate dramatically and immediately – which experts say is unrealistic – its population is bound to keep decreasing for at least several more decades until the skewed ratio balances out, and the babies being born now reach childbearing age themselves.

Official projections echo this prediction. According to models by the government’s Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), which were most recently revised last year, the population will fall 30% by 2070. At that point, the number of people age 65 and over will account for 40% of the population, it forecast.

What we’re seeing now “is zero surprise … and it will structurally continue for the foreseeable future,” Raymo said.

‘Drifted into singlehood’

There are many reasons for Japan’s low fertility rate – but the main problem is that people aren’t getting married in the first place, Raymo said.

Single parents, or children born to unmarried mothers, are far less common in Japan than many Western countries. Thus, fewer marriages means fewer babies overall.

The number of marriages in Japan declined nearly 6% in 2023 from the previous year – dipping below 500,000 for the first time in 90 years, according to the preliminary data released this week. Divorces also rose 2.6% last year.

Experts have pointed to Japan’s high cost of living, stagnant economy and wages, limited space, and the country’s demanding work culture as reasons fewer people are opting to date or marry.

Japanese people’s “willingness to form a family … has declined considerably,” according to a 2022 survey by the IPSS. Among single adults who have never wed, fewer say they intend to get married compared to previous years – while more say they wouldn’t be lonely even if they continued living alone. About one third said they did not want a relationship.

For women, economic costs are not the only turn off. Japan remains a highly patriarchal society in which married women are often expected to take the caregiver role, despite government efforts to get husbands more involved.

For all these reasons, many people are “ambivalent about marriage,” postponing it for years – “and then they’re 35, they’re 40, and they’ve sort of drifted into singlehood,” Raymo said.

Many of these issues are also plaguing other East Asian nations with their own population woes. Marriage rates have plummeted in China, where women are more educated and financially independent than ever. In South Korea, only one third of young people feel positively about marriage, according to polls, with many saying they don’t have enough money for marriage or feel it’s simply not necessary.

Most East Asian nations have also declined to legalize gay marriage, parenting and adoption rights, making it far harder for LGBTQ citizens to become parents.

What does Japan’s future look like?

The impact of the population crisis is evident.

Industries are feeling labor shortages; jobs are hard to fill, with fewer young adults entering the workforce; some rural communities are dying out, with one village that went 25 years without any new births.

Even in cities, things are changing – with many service jobs occupied by young immigrants, or students from countries such as China or Vietnam, Raymo said.

The government has spent years pushing various initiatives to encourage marriage and childbirth, such as enhancing child care services or offering housing subsidies. Some towns are even paying couples to have kids.

But given the decline is expected to continue for at least several decades, Japan will likely feel the blow to its pension and health care systems, and other social infrastructure that is difficult to maintain with a shrinking workforce.

That’s not to say Japan is doomed, Raymo asserted – the fertility rate will likely even out at some point, and the country will adjust. But that will take time, and Japan needs to prepare itself for “a really bumpy ride to a new equilibrium.”

There are a few ways that ride could play out. We could see a “massive mechanization of society,” meaning human labor being replaced by machines, Raymo said. As the population falls, some problems like the high cost of living, or overcrowding in Toyko could begin to ease. One theory suggests that fewer people means less competition for things like university admission and jobs.

But for now, this is all speculation. No country has been in this position before. And, Raymo said, the “only likely large-scale response” the government can implement is “mass immigration on a level Japan has never experienced.”

Immigration is a controversial issue in Japan, a largely conservative country that perceives itself as ethnically homogenous. It has historically failed to integrate previous waves of foreign workers and has instead relied on temporary fixes such as employing foreigners on student visas. Foreign residents and Japanese nationals of mixed ethnicity have long complained of xenophobia, racism and discrimination.

Japan may not have a choice, however. A 2022 report by a Tokyo-based research organization found that Japan needs about four times as many foreign workers by 2040 to achieve the government’s economic goals.

And authorities have shifted that direction in recent years, creating new visa categories and considering proposals to allow certain types of skilled workers to stay indefinitely. The IPSS’ models predict that by 2070, “the pace of population decline is expected to slow down slightly, mainly due to the increase in international migration.”

Decades down the line, the new Japan “might be a slightly poorer country, and a slightly less generous country in terms of policy support for elderly and families,” Raymo said.

“I can imagine a much smaller and a much different Japan,” he said. “But I don’t imagine an empty Japan.”

On Feb. 15, 20-year-old San Jose resident Joshua Sodapop Bocanegra was arrested in San Francisco and 20-year-old Gilroy resident Michael Carabajal was arrested in Gilroy, San Jose police Officer Tanya Hernandez said in a news release.

The suspects were booked into the Santa Clara County Main Jail on murder charges.

Gunshots were reported around 4:20 a.m. on Dec. 17 in the area of Snow and Giusti drives. Hernandez said officers arrived to find evidence of a shooting but no victims.

A short time later, two men arrived at an area hospital suffering from at least one gunshot wound each, Hernandez said. One died of his injuries while the other survived. The Santa Clara County Medical Examiner-Coroner’s Office will release the identity of the man who died once it is confirmed and his next of kin is notified.

The death marked the city’s 33rd homicide of 2023.

Hernandez said detectives went on to identify Bocanegra and Carabajal as suspects in the case and obtained warrants for their arrest. Police did not release a motive for the shooting.

Anyone with information related to the case can contact Detective Sgt. Martinez at 3934@sanjoseca.gov, Detective Jize at 4324@sanjoseca.gov or both at 408-277-5283.

Tips can also be left with Silicon Valley Crime Stoppers at 408-947-7867 or www.siliconvalleycrimestoppers.org.

Check back for updates.

MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed Thursday to fulfill Moscow’s goals in Ukraine and sternly warned the West against deeper involvement in the fighting, saying that such a move is fraught with the risk of a global nuclear conflict.

Putin’s blunt warning came in a state-of-the-nation address ahead of next month’s election he’s all but certain to win, underlining his readiness to raise the stakes in the tug-of-war with the West to protect the Russian gains in Ukraine.

In an apparent reference to French President Emmanuel Macron’s statement earlier this week that the future deployment of Western ground troops to Ukraine should not be “ruled out”, Putin warned that it would lead to “tragic” consequences for the countries who decide to do that.

Putin noted that while accusing Russia of plans to attack NATO allies in Europe, Western allies were “selecting targets for striking our territory” and “talking about the possibility of sending a NATO contingent to Ukraine.”

“We remember the fate of those who sent their troop contingents to the territory of our country,” the Russian leader said in an apparent allusion to the failed invasions by Napoleon and Hitler. “Now the consequences for the potential invaders will be far more tragic.”

In a two-hour speech before an audience of lawmakers and top officials, Putin cast Western leaders as reckless and irresponsible and declared that the West should keep in mind that “we also have the weapons that can strike targets on their territory, and what they are now suggesting and scaring the world with, all that raises the real threat of a nuclear conflict that will mean the destruction of our civilization.”

The strong statement followed earlier warnings from Putin, who has issued frequent reminders of Russia’s nuclear might since he sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022 as he sought to discourage the West from expanding its military support for Kyiv.

Putin emphasized that Russia’s nuclear forces are in “full readiness,” saying that the military has deployed potent new weapons, some of them tested on the battlefield in Ukraine.

The Kremlin leader said they include the new Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile that has entered service with Russian nuclear forces, along with the Burevestnik atomic-powered cruise missile and the Poseidon atomic-powered, nuclear-armed drone, which are completing their tests.

At the same time, he rejected Western leaders’ statements about the threat of a Russian attack on NATO allies in Europe as “ravings” and again dismissed Washington’s claim that Moscow was pondering the deployment of space-based nuclear weapons.

Putin charged that the U.S. allegations were part of a ploy to draw Russia into talks on nuclear arms control on American terms even as Washington continues its efforts to deliver a “strategic defeat” to Moscow in Ukraine.

“Ahead of the U.S. election, they just want to show their citizens, as well as others, that they continue to rule the world,” he said. “It won’t work.”

In his speech that focused heavily on economic and social issues ahead of the March 15-17 presidential vote, Putin argued that Russia was “defending its sovereignty and security and protecting our compatriots” in Ukraine, charging that the Russian forces have the upper hand in the fighting.

He reaffirmed his claim that the West was bent on destroying Russia, saying “they need a dependent, waning, dying space in the place of Russia so that they can do whatever they want.”

Putin has repeatedly said that he sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022 to protect Russian interests and prevent Ukraine from posing a major security threat to Russia by joining NATO. Kyiv and its allies have denounced it as an unprovoked act of aggression.

The Russian leader has repeatedly signaled a desire to negotiate an end to the fighting but warned that Russia will hold onto its gains.

Putin, 71, who is running as an independent candidate in the March 15-17 presidential election, relies on the tight control over Russia’s political system that he has established during 24 years in power.

Prominent critics who could challenge him have either been imprisoned or are living abroad, while most independent media have been banned, meaning that Putin’s reelection is all but assured. He faces token opposition from three other candidates nominated by Kremlin-friendly parties represented in parliament.

Russia’s best-known opposition leader Alexei Navalny, whose attempt to run against Putin in 2018 was rejected, died suddenly in an Arctic prison colony earlier this month, while serving a 19-year sentence on extremism charges. Navalny’s funeral is set for Friday.

Instead, Castro is facing a felony child endangerment charge, which requires no malice or willful intent.

“He’s not charged with any intentional homicide, and he’s not accused of not loving his baby,” Deputy District Attorney Maria Gershenovich said in her closing argument. “What he is accused of is that after he was entrusted by CPS and others to take care of Phoenix, this 3-month-old infant … (he) kept her in a home that was so toxic and dangerous it actually killed her.”

After listening to three days of prosecution witnesses, including a toxicologist who found fentanyl and methamphetamine in the baby’s blood and police detectives who found the same drugs in Castro’s San Jose apartment, Santa Clara County Superior Court Judge Paul Bernal ruled there was “sufficient cause to believe he’s guilty of that crime.” He also denied a defense request to release Castro from jail while he awaits trial. An arraignment is scheduled for March 11. If convicted of child endangerment and other enhancements, he could face up to 10 years in prison.

The arrest and prosecution of Castro comes amid a surge in fentanyl deaths across the Bay Area, including five infants since 2020. Dr. Mehdi Koolaee, the Santa Clara County coroner who conducted the autopsy on the infant, testified that he had never before seen fentanyl or methamphetamine in a baby.

Unanswered is how baby Phoenix ingested the fentanyl. During the preliminary hearing, neither Koolaee nor the prosecutor explained her manner of death, only that the crime lab had found fentanyl on various discolored parts of her little pink onesie, including on the snaps.

San Jose Police Det. Mike Harrington testified Thursday that Castro tested negative for drugs on the day of baby Phoenix’s death. But in a video of police interrogating Castro, he admitted that he knew how to game the system to pass drug tests for social workers while he had custody of the baby. Sometime he would stop using days before a scheduled test or use undetectable amounts.

The baby’s May 13, 2023, death, and the coroner’s ruling that she died of a fentanyl overdose, led not only to Castro’s arrest but to intense scrutiny of the Santa Clara County’s Department of Family and Children’s Services. An investigation by the Bay Area News Group late last year found that the child welfare agency sent Phoenix home despite the parents’ history of drug addiction and warnings from a social worker that the home environment could be life threatening. Phoenix’s two older siblings, now 3 and 5, were taken away by the child welfare agency a year earlier because of severe neglect — and the parents had done little to get them back.

On Thursday, Castro’s defense lawyer, Mishya Singh, showed the judge photos Castro had taken of his infant daughter happy in her bouncy seat and videos of his tickling her tummy. Castro, 38, sat in a brown jail suit and shackles and wiped away tears as he watched.

“CPS took two of his other kids away, but CPS chose to give Mr. Castro another chance to take care of Phoenix,” Singh said. “And what Mr. Castro did is that he rose to the challenge the best way he could although he had his own addiction to deal with. He loved that baby.”

Phoenix’s mother had been sent to jail on outstanding warrants after the baby’s birth and was living in a drug and mental health rehab facility when the infant died. Emily De La Cerda was out on a day pass when she and her mother visited the apartment and found Castro panicking and the baby limp. According to a detective’s testimony, Castro told police that he had survived a drug overdose years earlier, and more recently he had revived De La Cerda from one with the use of Narcan. De La Cerda died four months after her daughter, in the same apartment, also of a fentanyl overdose.

That the father is being charged in her death, his defense lawyer said, is “unfair, not on a moral ground, look at the evidence.”

In court a day earlier, Singh had suggested that baby Phoenix didn’t die of fentanyl poisoning but that her father likely accidentally smothered her as they slept on the couch the night before — a contention refuted by the coroner, who said the baby showed no signs of suffocation.

On Thursday, however, Singh posited that if the baby did, indeed, die of a drug overdose, her mother may be to blame. Two days before Phoenix’s death, Castro took the infant to the rehab facility for a four-hour visit with her mother while he ran errands. In several text messages presented in court, De La Cerda complained to Castro that she was having troubling calming the baby that evening.

“You’re aware that fentanyl, if someone is agitated, it can calm them down?” Singh asked Harrington, who was on the witness stand.

“Yes,” testified Harrington, one of the lead detectives on the case.

“If a baby is crying, giving a baby a little fentanyl (will) calm them down?” she asked.

Gershenovich, the prosecutor, objected before the officer could answer and later told the judge there was no evidence suggesting the mother drugged the baby or had access to drugs there.

Gershenovich on Thursday also recalled to the stand the coroner who conducted the autopsy on the baby. During testimony a day earlier, he had said the baby had been dead between 24 to 36 hours, but on Thursday he said pinpointing a time of death is often “unreliable,” and it could have been closer to 10-12 hours.

Singh, the defense lawyer, also reserved blame for the county’s child welfare agency for not better informing Castro that drug residue on a tabletop, couch or his hands could harm the baby. CPS could have insisted on a deep cleaning in the house, she said.

“The person hurting the most is sitting right there,” Singh said, pointing to her client. “He would never endanger that baby willfully.”

But the prosecutor put the blame squarely on Castro.

“He was the only person caring for her,” Gershenovich told the judge. “He had a duty of care, and unfortunately he failed her.”

INDEPENDENCE, Mo. — A court employee and a police officer were fatally shot Thursday after the court process server tried to serve an eviction notice at a home in Missouri, authorities said.

A second officer was critically injured, but is expected to survive, police said.

Independence Police Chief Adam Dustman said Thursday afternoon at a news conference that two of his police officers were met with gunfire while coming to the aid of Drexel Mack, the man who had been trying to serve the eviction notice.

Mack had called 911 saying he had been shot, Dustman said. The officers responded at about 1:10 p.m. and approached Mack to help him when someone shot at them, he said.

“I’m very tragically sorry to report that we lost one of our own,” Dustman said, identifying the officer as Cody Allen.

The second officer, whose name wasn’t released, underwent surgery and is expected to recover, Dustman said.

Dustman called Allen a hero and described the police department as a “broken family,” over Allen’s death.

A male suspect was in custody and sustained minor injuries, Corporal Justin Ewing with Missouri State Highway Patrol said during an earlier news conference.

Independence Police Department spokesperson Officer Jack Taylor said no details were immediately available about what led to the shooting.

Mack had worked for Jackson County for over a decade, officials said.

“We are devastated that a court employee, who is a public servant, was shot by a member of the public while performing their job,” Presiding Judge Jalilah Otto said in a statement. “Our hearts are heavy and our thoughts are with our employee, our entire Court family, and the Independence Police Department.”

Helicopter video from KMBC-TV showed emergency vehicles converged around an isolated house in the middle of a field. The media was cordoned off in an area about 1 mile (1.61 kilometers) from the crime scene. The area was a mixture of woods and farmland with a smattering of houses on large, multi-acre lots. A church was mixed in among the houses.

Independence is a suburb of Kansas City, with about 122,000 residents.

Samuel Holquin, who is also known as Samuel Holguin, was sentenced to three months in prison and three months supervised release. A court order signed by Senior U.S. District Judge Edward Chen says that Holquin has until April 8 to report to the Bureau of Prisons and start his sentence.

Holquin was charged in late 2022 with witness retaliation against Joseph Hardisty, a former member of the Richmond Hells Angels who testified for the government after several members allegedly assaulted him after he announced he was leaving the club.

Holquin allegedly texted menacing things to Hardisty and told another person, “I might as well drive out there and get all three of them (expletive) pieces of (expletive),” apparently referring to Hardisty and two other witnesses. Of his conversation with Hardisty, he allegedly wrote in a text message, “I had to let (Hardisty) know that I found him and know everything about him and his family,” according to a prosecution sentencing memo.

Defense attorneys representing Holquin said in court filings that he has learned his lesson. They also pushed back against prosecutors labeling Holquin a Hells Angels “associate,” writing that he was friends with a few members but not affiliated with the motorcycle club in any way.

“Mr. Holguin has learned a lesson from this conviction – the only time in his life he has been convicted of a crime. The lesson is that his focus must be on his family and on complying with the law,” his lawyers wrote. “During the pendency of this case, Mr. Holguin has demonstrated how thoroughly he has learned that lesson, performing flawlessly on supervision while serving as an in-home caretaker for his ailing father and grandmother.”

Hardisty’s testimony has resulted in four murder convictions over the death of a Hells Angels member named Joel Silva, and probably contributed to several others accepting plea deals.

Hardisty, a former friend of Silva, testified that the Hells Angels plotted to murder Silva due to his increasingly erratic behavior, culminating with him allegedly threatening a high-ranking club member during a motorcycle rally in New England. Silva was shot in the back of his head in the Hells Angels’ Fresno clubhouse and cremated illegally at a nearby funeral home, according to Hardisty’s testimony.

Chen also ordered Holquin to perform 40 hours of community service, stay away from Hardisty and not wear Hells Angels garb or associate with club members.

During a news conference at the future site, an empty lot in the city’s Berryessa neighborhood, Mayor Matt Mahan touted his push to bring down costs by redesigning the project, which is still set to host around 85 vehicles. The city now expects to spend about $7.5 million completing the site, down from the more than $15 million officials had initially estimated.

Officials said the main difference in the redesign is less office space for staff who will operate the lot, about a mile from the Berryessa BART station at 1300 Berryessa Road. However, RV residents will still receive supportive services and have on-site bathrooms and laundry.

On Thursday, Mahan, who’s widely expected to sail to reelection next week, framed the savings as part of his broader effort to bring homeless people off the streets faster and more cost-effectively. To solve street homelessness, he has focused on expanding “quick-build” cabin shelters and safe parking sites rather than permanent affordable housing, which in the Bay Area can cost as much as $1 million per door.

“We cannot let the perfect be the enemy of the good,” he said.

Launching the 6.3-acre site, set to open this fall despite safety concerns from some neighbors, may cost less than building new affordable housing, but operating it may not be cheap in the long run. When the city approved the site last year, officials estimated expenses would exceed $24 million over five years.

And if the city follows through on plans to add hundreds more safe parking spots and other “interim” shelter units, total operational expenses could soon exceed $70 million a year, about twice the current cost.

Mahan said he hopes to find more money in the city budget to support his shelter plans. He maintains the costs are worth it, given the human suffering on the streets and the strain homelessness puts on emergency services, law enforcement and city parks, creeks and public spaces.

San Jose has an estimated 6,200 homeless residents, about 70% of whom live outdoors or in vehicles.

“Our fire department is responding to a couple dozen fires a day in our encampments,” Mahan said. “The environmental degradation, and ultimately even just the clean water issues, are really significant and are forcing cities across the state to be more pragmatic about getting people to safe and managed sites.”

“There’s a high likelihood that people will be stranded if they try to drive up here from the Bay Area,” said Craig Shoemaker, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Sacramento, on Thursday afternoon. “It’s too late to even try. It’s a very dangerous, life-threatening situation that will be developing.”

At local stores in Lake Tahoe, people bought tire chains, snow blowers, shovels, flashlights, candles, battery-powered lanterns and telescoping roof rakes for pulling down accumulated snow on homes.

“Today most of the locals are saying, “There is something big going on,” and yesterday they were saying, “Are we really going to get 10 feet of snow?” said Brittney McClain, manager of Ace Hardware in South Lake Tahoe.

The National Weather Service issued a blizzard warning for the Northern and Central Sierra continuing through 10 a.m. Saturday, the first such warning since Feb. 27 last year.

Meanwhile, the Sierra Avalanche Center in Truckee issued a backcountry avalanche watch in effect from 7 a.m. Friday to 5 p.m. Sunday for the Central Sierra, including the Lake Tahoe area, warning of “extremely dangerous” avalanche conditions.

Because of high winds and declining visibility, ski resorts were expected to close or severely limit operations this weekend.

Sierra-at-Tahoe closed Thursday and announced it also would be shuttered on Friday “to preserve the safety of our guests and employees.” Heavenly closed Thursday afternoon, and other resorts, such as Kirkwood and Palisades, had only a few chair lifts running Thursday, with most closed due to high winds.

Last winter, a series of massive atmospheric river storms dumped dozens of feet of snow on the Sierra Nevada, ending a three-year drought. The Sierra snowpack, which provides about 30% of California’s water supply, was at its deepest level in 40 years. Reservoirs around the state filled, and ski resorts stayed open well into the spring.

As a result, Tahoe locals, even newly arrived residents, have a lot of recent practice on how to prepare for blizzard conditions, McClain said. In some neighborhoods, people plan to dig out fire hydrants to stop them from being buried too deep in snow. In other areas, residents were tossing salt pellets on their roofs or plugging in electric roof cables to prevent huge amounts of snow and ice from building up.

Last March, the roof collapsed at the Raley’s supermarket in South Lake Tahoe under the weight of snow and ice.

“When you have too much snow on your roof, your doors and windows don’t open correctly. Eventually you can start having beams break down, and the roofs can collapse,” McClain said. “We had a huge mass of ice, 15 feet long and about 2 feet around, that formed on the roof of our house last winter. It was in front of our windows. If it had fallen, it could have broken through.”

On Thursday afternoon, Tricia Popky, a Carmel Valley nurse who has a cabin near Donner Lake, was in central Truckee buying winter gloves, firewood and kindling and a new firewood rack for the cabin. “I’m just going to be hunkering down,” Popky said. “I’m going to cook some soup. I’m so excited because I got my wood-burning stove working.”

The latest storm, a powerful cold front that is carrying an unusual amount of moisture, originated over the Bering Sea between Alaska and Russia.

The National Weather Service said it will only bring 1 or 2 inches of rain to most Bay Area communities. But the storm is forecast to dump 5 to 10 feet of snow in the Sierra above 5,000 feet and 1 to 4 feet of snow at about 3,000 feet. In some high-elevation spots, 12 feet is possible by Sunday.

“If what we’re seeing from the models ends up happening, this is a truly remarkable storm system,” said Andrew Schwartz, lead scientist at the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab near Donner Summit. “It’s one that we very rarely have had before. It could set a highest snowfall on a single day for us.”

Since modern records began in 1970, the most snow the snow lab, which sits at about 6,900 feet, has ever received in one day was 53 inches, on Feb. 3, 1989.

An early inkling of the meteorological mayhem came Thursday morning when Interstate 80, the main highway over the Sierra, was closed eastbound for more than three hours after a big rig overturned near Donner Lake interchange, blocking both lanes of traffic, just as the snow was beginning to fall. The driver suffered minor injuries.

“It was pretty nasty for a while,” said John O’Connell, a Caltrans spokesman. “He was going too fast.”

Cars sat for miles all morning in stopped traffic or attempted to navigate backroads to get around it.

San Jose truck driver Erik Lopez, making a run from Stockton to Reno, was putting chains on his 18-wheeler near Kingvale on I-80 Thursday amid increasingly heavy snowfall after getting stuck in the lengthy jam. At the top of his mind was making sure he would return home to his family.

“There’s no fear in my heart,” said Lopez, 34. “But there’s safety in my heart.”

Farther east, Truckee resident Brent Martin was pulling into his garage after a sketchy trip from Sacramento in his pickup truck, traveling via backroads because of the I-80 crash. He planned to keep off highways until the storm has passed but was not expecting snow-related problems at home.

The blizzard would be “nothing compared to last year,” he predicted. “I’d shovel four feet off my deck twice a day last year.”

Martin urged non-residents to stay away this weekend.

“Tell everyone not to come up — all the Teslas and the Priuses, stay down in the Bay Area,” said Martin, 32. “That’s what causes a lot of the problems. Teslas are the new minivans — we hate ’em up here.”

The disruption Thursday wasn’t just limited to Tahoe and Donner Summit. Yosemite National Park officials said the park would be closed Friday and will not open until at least Sunday afternoon.

While a headache for motorists and first responders, the storm was a godsend to water managers. On Thursday, the statewide Sierra snowpack was 80% of its historical average, up from 28% on Jan. 1 after a wet February.

“When all is said and done, it is likely the Sierra snowpack will be significantly above average just about everywhere in as little as a week,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA.

“This storm will certainly bolster the Sierra snow pack, but it is going to cause a lot of disruption.”

TORONTO — Brian Mulroney, the former Canadian prime minister who forged closer ties with the United States through a sweeping free trade agreement and whose Progressive Conservative party suffered a devastating defeat just after he left office, died Thursday. He was 84.

The country’s 18th prime minister died peacefully and surrounded by family, his daughter Caroline Mulroney said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. Mulroney’s family said this past summer that he was improving daily after a heart procedure that followed treatment for prostate cancer in early 2023.

Leader of the Progressive Conservative party from 1983 to 1993, Mulroney served almost a decade as prime minister after he was first elected in 1984 after snagging the largest majority in Canadian history with 211 of 282 seats.

The win would mark Canada’s first Conservative majority government in 26 years. His government was re-elected in 1988.

Mulroney entered the job with massive support, but he left with the lowest approval rating in Canadian history. In the years since, more recent prime ministers sought his advice.

“Brian Mulroney loved Canada. I’m devastated to learn of his passing. He never stopped working for Canadians, and he always sought to make this country an even better place to call home,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a statement.

“As we mourn his passing and keep his family and friends in our thoughts, let us also acknowledge – and celebrate – Mr. Mulroney’s role in building the modern, dynamic, and prosperous country we all know today,” Trudeau said.

The man known for his charm and Irish blarney — a gift for the gab — was an ardent advocate of stronger U.S.-Canadian relations. He eulogized two American presidents.

He pushed a free trade deal forward in no small part due to his chumminess with U.S. President Ronald Reagan.

Few Canadians around during his reign have forgotten the widely broadcast Mulroney-Reagan duet of “When Irish Eyes Are Smiling” at the Shamrock summit in Quebec City in 1985, named after the pair’s Irish heritage and the fact that the summit fell on St. Patrick’s Day. The 24-hour meeting opened the door to future free trade talks between the countries.

Along with a fan base of fellow conservative Margaret Thatcher, Mulroney can also boast of an enduring friendship with former President George H.W. Bush.

Mulroney delivered a eulogy for Bush’s state funeral.

Mulroney also eulogized Reagan in 2004. Mulroney, Reagan and Bush became friends when they shared the world stage as leaders of their countries during the last decade of the Cold War.

Mulroney’s nine years in power overlapped with Bush’s four.

It was Mulroney’s amiable relationship with his southern counterparts that helped develop the free-trade treaty, a hotly contested pact at the time. The trade deal led to a permanent realignment of the Canadian economy and huge increases in north-south trade.

However, Mulroney’s administration was saddled with scandals and his near decade reign as prime minister came crashing down in 1993 when voters delivered a devastating election defeat to his Progressive Conservative Party, leaving it with just two seats in the 295-member House of Commons. He left shortly before the election result.

The defeat came amid widespread unhappiness over Canada’s then-depressed economy. Canadians blamed Mulroney of failing to address a 3-year-old recession that left a record number of people out of work or bankrupt.

Under his leadership, a much-criticized 7% sales tax was pushed through, as well as the 1988 U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement, after more than 100 years of tariff protection. The agreement later included Mexico in 1994, evolving into the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The Quebec-born, half-Irish, “boy from Baie-Comeau” (a small-town in the French-speaking province) leader campaigned hard on the trade agreements following his first term.

But many constituents were opposed to the treaty, concerned that the agreement would jeopardize Canadian sovereignty. Critics blamed the rising unemployment during the late ’80s and early ’90s in Canada on factors such as businesses moving south to escape higher Canadian taxes and labor costs.

Former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper noted that Mulroney was vilified for the free trade deal during his leadership but said that history will remember him as the leader who set Canada on a path to unprecedented economic growth and prosperity.

Mulroney was born March 20, 1939, in Baie-Comeau, an isolated smelting town on Quebec’s North Shore.

Hired as a labor lawyer by Montreal’s largest law firm, Ogilvy Renault, he later became the president of the Iron Ore Company of Canada, a subsidiary of Cleveland-based Hanna Mining.

Mulroney leaves behind wife Mila Mulroney and four children: Caroline, Ben, Mark and Nicolas.

WASHINGTON — A federal judge held veteran investigative reporter Catherine Herridge in civil contempt on Thursday for refusing to divulge her source for a series of stories during her time at Fox News about a Chinese American scientist who was investigated by the FBI but never charged.

U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper in Washington imposed a fine of $800 dollars per day until Herridge complies, but the fine will not go into effect immediately to give her time to appeal.

A lawyer for Herridge, Patrick Philbin, declined to comment.

The source is being sought by Yanpin Chen, who has sued the government over the leak of details about the federal probe into statements she made on immigration forms related to work on a Chinese astronaut program.

Herridge, who was recently laid off by CBS News, published an investigative series for Fox News in 2017 that examined Chen’s ties to the Chinese military and raised questions about whether the scientist was using a professional school she founded in Virginia to help the Chinese government get information about American servicemembers.

The stories relied on what her lawyers contend were items leaked from the probe, including snippets of an FBI document summarizing an interview conducted during the investigation, personal photographs, and information taken from her immigration and naturalization forms and from an internal FBI PowerPoint presentation.

Chen sued the FBI and Justice Department in 2018, saying her personal information was selectively leaked to “smear her reputation and damage her livelihood.”

The judge had ordered Herridge in August to answer questions about her source or sources in a deposition with Chen’s lawyers. The judge ruled that Chen’s need to know for the sake of her lawsuit overcomes Herridge’s right to shield her source, despite the “vital importance of a free press and the critical role” that confidential sources play in journalists’ work.